Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 3.
16 games and 17 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-8, +4.1u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 32-16, +17.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  NOSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | NO +3 | 49.5 | ATL 27 at NO 24NO +3 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  NESun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | NE +14 | 42.5 | BUF 30 at NE 38NE +14 closed · BUF covered |
 CIN @  CARSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 37.5 | CIN 20 at CAR 7CAR -3 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  BALSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | BAL +12 | 36.5 | CLE 17 at BAL 24BAL +12 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  HOUSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | HOU +1.5 | 47.5 | DAL 27 at HOU 13HOU +1.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | MIN +13 | 42.5 | DET 10 at MIN 24MIN +13 closed · MIN covered |
 IND @  DENSun, Sep 26 16:15 ET | DEN -5.5 | 47 | IND 27 at DEN 13DEN -5.5 closed · IND covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Sep 26 20:20 ET | MIA +1 | 35.5 | NYJ 31 at MIA 23MIA +1 closed · NYJ covered |
 OAK @  ARISun, Sep 26 16:15 ET | ARI +5.5 | 38.5 | OAK 23 at ARI 24ARI +5.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  JAXSun, Sep 26 16:05 ET | JAX -2 | 45 | PHI 28 at JAX 3JAX -2 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  TBSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | TB -2 | 33 | PIT 38 at TB 13TB -2 closed · PIT covered |
 SD @  SEASun, Sep 26 16:15 ET | SEA -3.5 | 44 | SD 20 at SEA 27SEA -3.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  KCSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | KC -2.5 | 38 | SF 10 at KC 31KC -2.5 closed · KC covered |
 TEN @  NYGSun, Sep 26 13:00 ET | NYG +3 | 43.5 | TEN 29 at NYG 10NYG +3 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  STLSun, Sep 26 16:05 ET | STL -4.5 | 39 | WAS 16 at STL 30STL -4.5 closed · STL covered |
 GB @  CHIMon, Sep 27 20:30 ET | CHI -3 | 45.5 | GB 17 at CHI 20CHI -3 closed · CHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LV @ ARI WIN ARI -5.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 17-6 (74%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 23-12 (66%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 15-8 (65%)
- and 45 more angles on this side
CIN @ CAR LOSS CIN -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 43-26 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 93-59 (61%)
GB @ CHI WIN GB -3 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 32-16 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week 41-21 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, won last week, blew someone out last week 41-21 (66%)
- and 12 more angles on this side
IND @ DEN LOSS IND -5.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week 52-32 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, blew someone out last week 52-32 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 26-17 (60%)
LAC @ SEA WIN LAC -3.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 15-5 (75%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 32-16 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week 41-21 (66%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
ATL @ NO LOSS NO -3 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, better record, division game, in a dome 17-8 (68%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 14-8 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, in a dome, high total (48+) 17-10 (63%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
TEN @ NYG LOSS NYG -3 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better QB 25-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, better QB 25-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, at home, got blown out last week 13-8 (62%)
NYJ @ MIA WIN NYJ +1 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse QB, division game 50-31 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, worse QB, division game 54-35 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse record, division game 47-31 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
PIT @ TB LOSS PIT -2 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 44-25 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 43-26 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 28-17 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
WAS @ 
LAR WIN WAS -4.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 63-36 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 28-16 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 36-21 (63%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
SD @ SEA TOTALLOSS Under 44.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 65-51 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, on turf 37-30 (55%)
PHI @ JAX TOTALWIN Under 45.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 65-51 (56%)
CIN @ CAR TOTALWIN Under 37.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 65-51 (56%)
OAK @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
WAS @ STL TOTALWIN Over 39.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
DET @ MIN TOTALLOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
DAL @ HOU TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.