Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 12.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-5, +2.3u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 106-55, +65.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CIN @  NYJThu, Nov 25 20:20 ET | NYJ +10 | 43 | CIN 10 at NYJ 26NYJ +10 closed · NYJ covered |
 NE @  DETThu, Nov 25 12:30 ET | DET -6 | 50.5 | NE 45 at DET 24DET -6 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  DALThu, Nov 25 16:15 ET | DAL -4.5 | 48 | NO 30 at DAL 27DAL -4.5 closed · DAL covered |
 CAR @  CLESun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | CLE +9 | 37.5 | CAR 23 at CLE 24CLE +9 closed · CAR covered |
 GB @  ATLSun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | ATL +2.5 | 47.5 | GB 17 at ATL 20ATL +2.5 closed · ATL covered |
 JAX @  NYGSun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | NYG +8 | 42.5 | JAX 20 at NYG 24NYG +8 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  SEASun, Nov 28 16:05 ET | SEA -1 | 45 | KC 42 at SEA 24SEA -1 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  OAKSun, Nov 28 16:05 ET | OAK +3 | 38 | MIA 33 at OAK 17OAK +3 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  WASSun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | WAS -1 | 43.5 | MIN 17 at WAS 13WAS -1 closed · MIN covered |
 PHI @  CHISun, Nov 28 16:15 ET | CHI -3 | 41.5 | PHI 26 at CHI 31CHI -3 closed · CHI covered |
 PIT @  BUFSun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | BUF -6.5 | 43.5 | PIT 19 at BUF 16BUF -6.5 closed · BUF covered |
 SD @  INDSun, Nov 28 20:20 ET | IND +2 | 50 | SD 36 at IND 14IND +2 closed · SD covered |
 STL @  DENSun, Nov 28 16:15 ET | DEN +3 | 46.5 | STL 36 at DEN 33DEN +3 closed · STL covered |
 TB @  BALSun, Nov 28 16:15 ET | BAL +7.5 | 41 | TB 10 at BAL 17BAL +7.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  HOUSun, Nov 28 13:00 ET | HOU +5 | 46.5 | TEN 0 at HOU 20HOU +5 closed · HOU covered |
 SF @  ARIMon, Nov 29 20:30 ET | ARI -1 | 41.5 | SF 27 at ARI 6ARI -1 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
PIT @ BUF LOSS BUF +6.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, at home, better coach 16-6 (73%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB 42-23 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, blew someone out last week, worse QB 42-23 (65%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
CAR @ CLE WIN CAR +9 2.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, low total (41 or under) 15-8 (65%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), got blown out last week, better QB 15-8 (65%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, better QB 14-8 (64%)
- and 16 more angles on this side
JAC @ NYG WIN NYG -8 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, elite QB 23-13 (64%)
PHI @ CHI WIN PHI -3 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 27-13 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 32-16 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 35-19 (65%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
TB @ BAL WIN TB +7.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, bad QB 14-7 (67%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, bad QB 15-8 (65%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, won last week, blew someone out last week, bad QB 15-8 (65%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
NE @ DET TOTALLOSS Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 42-20 (68%)
- under when high total (48+) 70-40 (64%)
- under when in a dome, high total (48+) 22-17 (56%)
SF @ ARI TOTALLOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
GB @ ATL TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
CAR @ CLE TOTALWIN Over 37.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, home team a big favorite 22-14 (61%)
- over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 50-38 (57%)
CIN @ NYJ TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, home team a big favorite 22-14 (61%)
MIA @ OAK TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 46-32 (59%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
STL @ DEN TOTALWIN Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 21-12 (64%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.