Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 14.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-4, -0.5u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 114-63, +63.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 IND @  TENThu, Dec 9 20:20 ET | TEN -3 | 44 | IND 30 at TEN 28TEN -3 closed · TEN covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | CAR -7 | 41 | ATL 31 at CAR 10CAR -7 closed · ATL covered |
 CIN @  PITSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | PIT +9 | 39.5 | CIN 7 at PIT 23PIT +9 closed · PIT covered |
 CLE @  BUFSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | BUF +1 | 39.5 | CLE 6 at BUF 13BUF +1 closed · BUF covered |
 DEN @  ARISun, Dec 12 16:15 ET | ARI -4 | 44.5 | DEN 13 at ARI 43ARI -4 closed · ARI covered |
 GB @  DETSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | DET -7 | 45.5 | GB 3 at DET 7DET -7 closed · DET covered |
 KC @  SDSun, Dec 12 16:15 ET | SD +10 | 45.5 | KC 0 at SD 31SD +10 closed · SD covered |
 MIA @  NYJSun, Dec 12 16:15 ET | NYJ +5 | 37.5 | MIA 10 at NYJ 6NYJ +5 closed · MIA covered |
 NE @  CHISun, Dec 12 16:15 ET | CHI -3 | 37.5 | NE 36 at CHI 7CHI -3 closed · NE covered |
 OAK @  JAXSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | JAX +3.5 | 41 | OAK 31 at JAX 38JAX +3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 PHI @  DALSun, Dec 12 20:20 ET | DAL -4 | 50.5 | PHI 30 at DAL 27DAL -4 closed · DAL covered |
 SEA @  SFSun, Dec 12 16:05 ET | SF +4.5 | 42.5 | SEA 21 at SF 40SF +4.5 closed · SF covered |
 STL @  NOSun, Dec 12 16:05 ET | NO +9.5 | 47 | STL 13 at NO 31NO +9.5 closed · NO covered |
 TB @  WASSun, Dec 12 13:00 ET | WAS -1 | 41 | TB 17 at WAS 16WAS -1 closed · push |
 BAL @  HOUMon, Dec 13 20:30 ET | HOU -3 | 47 | BAL 34 at HOU 28HOU -3 closed · BAL covered |
 NYG @  MINMon, Dec 13 19:20 ET | MIN -4.5 | 43.5 | NYG 21 at MIN 3MIN -4.5 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DEN @ ARI - model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 38-22 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 24-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 24-16 (60%)
NE @ CHI - model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 22-10 (69%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 15-7 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 35-19 (65%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
GB @ DET TOTAL- over when in a dome, home team a big underdog 17-10 (63%)
- over when on turf, home team a big underdog 22-14 (61%)
- over when home team a big underdog 56-42 (57%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
TB @ WAS TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 65-51 (56%)
OAK @ JAX TOTAL- under when windy, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 18-9 (67%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 49-36 (58%)
- under when windy, late season 36-29 (55%)
BAL @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
NYG @ MIN TOTAL- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
DEN @ ARI TOTAL- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
IND @ TEN TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 24-18 (57%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.