Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 16.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-6, -0.8u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 128-76, +61.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CAR @  PITThu, Dec 23 20:20 ET | PIT +14 | 37.5 | CAR 3 at PIT 27PIT +14 closed · PIT covered |
 DAL @  ARISat, Dec 25 19:30 ET | ARI -7 | 45 | DAL 26 at ARI 27ARI -7 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  CLESun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | CLE -3.5 | 39.5 | BAL 20 at CLE 10CLE -3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 DET @  MIASun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | MIA +3.5 | 41 | DET 34 at MIA 27MIA +3.5 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  DENSun, Dec 26 16:05 ET | DEN -2 | 49.5 | HOU 23 at DEN 24DEN -2 closed · DEN covered |
 IND @  OAKSun, Dec 26 16:05 ET | OAK -1 | 46 | IND 31 at OAK 26OAK -1 closed · IND covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | BUF -7 | 46.5 | NE 34 at BUF 3BUF -7 closed · NE covered |
 NYG @  GBSun, Dec 26 16:15 ET | GB +3 | 43 | NYG 17 at GB 45GB +3 closed · GB covered |
 NYJ @  CHISun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | CHI +1.5 | 36 | NYJ 34 at CHI 38CHI +1.5 closed · CHI covered |
 SD @  CINSun, Dec 26 16:05 ET | CIN -9 | 43.5 | SD 20 at CIN 34CIN -9 closed · CIN covered |
 SEA @  TBSun, Dec 26 16:15 ET | TB +5 | 43.5 | SEA 15 at TB 38TB +5 closed · TB covered |
 SF @  STLSun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | STL +2 | 40 | SF 17 at STL 25STL +2 closed · STL covered |
 TEN @  KCSun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | KC +4 | 42.5 | TEN 14 at KC 34KC +4 closed · KC covered |
 WAS @  JAXSun, Dec 26 13:00 ET | JAX +7 | 45.5 | WAS 20 at JAX 17JAX +7 closed · WAS covered |
 NO @  ATLMon, Dec 27 20:30 ET | ATL +2 | 50 | NO 17 at ATL 14ATL +2 closed · NO covered |
 MIN @  PHITue, Dec 28 20:00 ET | PHI +14 | 44 | MIN 24 at PHI 14PHI +14 closed · MIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ CLE WIN CLE +3.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 20-10 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 47-26 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, worse QB, division game 28-16 (64%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
NYG @ GB LOSS NYG +3 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, better record, elite QB 17-8 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better record, elite QB 30-15 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, underdog, better record, elite QB 18-11 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NYJ @ CHI WIN NYJ +1.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, worse QB, better coach 37-23 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better coach, low total (41 or under) 31-20 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, won last week, better coach 27-18 (60%)
SEA @ TB WIN TB -5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, better record, worse QB, bad QB 24-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, better record, worse QB, bad QB 25-16 (61%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, better record, bad QB 25-16 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
WAS @ JAC LOSS WAS +7 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, worse QB, better coach 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, worse record, better coach 17-10 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, big underdog (7+), on the road 13-8 (62%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
DAL @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, home team a big underdog 17-10 (63%)
- over when home team a big underdog 56-42 (57%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
SEA @ TB TOTALLOSS Under 43.5 1.0u
- under when windy, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 18-9 (67%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 65-51 (56%)
- under when windy, late season 36-29 (55%)
DET @ MIA TOTALLOSS Under 41.0 1.0u
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 49-36 (58%)
- under when windy, late season 36-29 (55%)
SF @ STL TOTALWIN Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 46-32 (59%)
- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
NYJ @ CHI TOTALWIN Over 36.0 1.0u
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 20-10 (67%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 21-12 (64%)
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 24-18 (57%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CAR @ PIT TOTALLOSS Over 37.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, home team a big favorite 22-14 (61%)
- over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 50-38 (57%)
MIN @ PHI TOTALLOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 15-7 (68%)
- over when under 40 degrees, home team a big favorite 22-14 (61%)
NYG @ GB TOTALWIN Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 24-18 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.