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Weekly Lines · 2010

Week 2.

16 games and 18 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 14-4, +9.3u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 23-8, +13.8u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
ARI @ ATLSun, Sep 19 13:00 ETATL +743ARI 7 at ATL 41ATL +7 closed · ATL covered
BAL @ CINSun, Sep 19 13:00 ETCIN -2.539.5BAL 10 at CIN 15CIN -2.5 closed · CIN covered
BUF @ GBSun, Sep 19 13:00 ETGB +12.543BUF 7 at GB 34GB +12.5 closed · GB covered
CHI @ DALSun, Sep 19 13:00 ETDAL +741CHI 27 at DAL 20DAL +7 closed · CHI covered
HOU @ WASSun, Sep 19 16:15 ETWAS -2.543HOU 30 at WAS 27WAS -2.5 closed · HOU covered
JAX @ SDSun, Sep 19 16:15 ETSD +745.5JAX 13 at SD 38SD +7 closed · SD covered
KC @ CLESun, Sep 19 13:00 ETCLE +338KC 16 at CLE 14CLE +3 closed · KC covered
MIA @ MINSun, Sep 19 13:00 ETMIN +5.540.5MIA 14 at MIN 10MIN +5.5 closed · MIA covered
NE @ NYJSun, Sep 19 16:15 ETNYJ -339.5NE 14 at NYJ 28NYJ -3 closed · NYJ covered
NYG @ INDSun, Sep 19 20:20 ETIND +447.5NYG 14 at IND 38IND +4 closed · IND covered
PHI @ DETSun, Sep 19 13:00 ETDET -6.541PHI 35 at DET 32DET -6.5 closed · DET covered
PIT @ TENSun, Sep 19 13:00 ETTEN +636.5PIT 19 at TEN 11TEN +6 closed · PIT covered
SEA @ DENSun, Sep 19 16:05 ETDEN +3.541SEA 14 at DEN 31DEN +3.5 closed · DEN covered
STL @ OAKSun, Sep 19 16:05 ETOAK +337.5STL 14 at OAK 16OAK +3 closed · STL covered
TB @ CARSun, Sep 19 13:00 ETCAR +438TB 20 at CAR 7CAR +4 closed · TB covered
NO @ SFMon, Sep 20 20:30 ETSF -4.543.5NO 25 at SF 22SF -4.5 closed · SF covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

BUF @ GB
LOSS GB -12.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better QB, better coach 36-19 (66%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better QB, better coach 56-31 (64%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 77-47 (62%)
  • and 8 more angles on this side
HOU @ WAS
WIN HOU -2.5 2.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 37-17 (68%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 36-17 (68%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 52-27 (66%)
  • and 9 more angles on this side
NYG @ IND
WIN IND -4 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 38-22 (63%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, better coach 33-20 (62%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, worse record, better QB, better coach 22-14 (61%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
JAC @ LAC
WIN LAC -7 2.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better QB, elite QB 13-7 (65%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 38-22 (63%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, better coach 33-20 (62%)
  • and 5 more angles on this side
LAR @ LV
WIN LV -3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 35-19 (65%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 40-22 (64%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 23-13 (64%)
  • and 29 more angles on this side
NE @ NYJ
LOSS NE -3 3.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, elite QB 16-6 (73%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 37-17 (68%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, elite QB 23-11 (68%)
  • and 28 more angles on this side
PHI @ DET
WIN PHI -6.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 31-14 (69%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 46-25 (65%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 22-12 (65%)
  • and 23 more angles on this side
PIT @ TEN
WIN TEN -6 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, won last week, blew someone out last week, worse QB 37-20 (65%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB 37-20 (65%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB 42-23 (65%)
  • and 11 more angles on this side
KC @ CLE TOTAL
WIN Under 38.0 1.0u
  • under when windy, low total (41 or under) 49-36 (58%)
CHI @ DAL TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
PHI @ DET TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
MIA @ MIN TOTAL
LOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
NE @ NYJ TOTAL
WIN Over 39.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 21-12 (64%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), home team off Monday night 26-20 (56%)
BAL @ CIN TOTAL
WIN Under 39.5 1.0u
  • under when division game, road team off Monday night 15-9 (62%)
JAX @ SD TOTAL
WIN Over 45.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 45-36 (56%)
ARI @ ATL TOTAL
WIN Over 43.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 45-36 (56%)
STL @ OAK TOTAL
LOSS Over 37.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 46-32 (59%)
NO @ SF TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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