Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 6.
14 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 10-3, +11.7u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 57-30, +30.1u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  PHISun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | PHI +1 | 43 | ATL 17 at PHI 31PHI +1 closed · PHI covered |
 BAL @  NESun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | NE +3 | 44.5 | BAL 20 at NE 23NE +3 closed · push |
 CLE @  PITSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | PIT +14 | 37.5 | CLE 10 at PIT 28PIT +14 closed · PIT covered |
 DAL @  MINSun, Oct 17 16:15 ET | MIN +1 | 43.5 | DAL 21 at MIN 24MIN +1 closed · MIN covered |
 DET @  NYGSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | NYG +10 | 45.5 | DET 20 at NYG 28NYG +10 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  WASSun, Oct 17 20:20 ET | WAS -3 | 44.5 | IND 27 at WAS 24WAS -3 closed · push |
 KC @  HOUSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | HOU +4.5 | 45.5 | KC 31 at HOU 35HOU +4.5 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  GBSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | GB +3 | 44 | MIA 23 at GB 20GB +3 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | TB -5.5 | 43.5 | NO 31 at TB 6TB -5.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  DENSun, Oct 17 16:05 ET | DEN -3.5 | 43 | NYJ 24 at DEN 20DEN -3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 OAK @  SFSun, Oct 17 16:05 ET | SF +9 | 40.5 | OAK 9 at SF 17SF +9 closed · OAK covered |
 SD @  STLSun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | STL -9.5 | 44.5 | SD 17 at STL 20STL -9.5 closed · STL covered |
 SEA @  CHISun, Oct 17 13:00 ET | CHI +6 | 37.5 | SEA 23 at CHI 20CHI +6 closed · SEA covered |
 TEN @  JAXMon, Oct 18 20:30 ET | JAX -3 | 43.5 | TEN 30 at JAX 3JAX -3 closed · TEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ PHI - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, won last week, better record 18-8 (69%)
SEA @ CHI - model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, better record 14-6 (70%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 31-17 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, better record 20-12 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
LAC @ 
LAR - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 23-10 (70%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 31-14 (69%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, elite QB 15-7 (68%)
- and 36 more angles on this side
DAL @ MIN - model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 38-22 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 24-15 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better QB, elite QB 15-10 (60%)
LV @ SF - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 23-10 (70%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 32-16 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 37-19 (66%)
- and 19 more angles on this side
TEN @ JAC - model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, won last week, worse QB 37-23 (62%)
DAL @ MIN TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 21-12 (64%)
- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
ATL @ PHI TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 34-21 (62%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
BAL @ NE TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 21-12 (64%)
OAK @ SF TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 34-21 (62%)
CLE @ PIT TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 34-21 (62%)
NYJ @ DEN TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
SEA @ CHI TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.