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Weekly Lines · 2010

Week 4.

14 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 4-8, -8.2u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 36-24, +9.7u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
ARI @ SDSun, Oct 3 16:15 ETSD +1047ARI 10 at SD 41SD +10 closed · SD covered
BAL @ PITSun, Oct 3 13:00 ETPIT +234.5BAL 17 at PIT 14PIT +2 closed · BAL covered
CAR @ NOSun, Oct 3 13:00 ETNO +12.543.5CAR 14 at NO 16NO +12.5 closed · CAR covered
CHI @ NYGSun, Oct 3 20:20 ETNYG +3.544CHI 3 at NYG 17NYG +3.5 closed · NYG covered
CIN @ CLESun, Oct 3 13:00 ETCLE -1.536.5CIN 20 at CLE 23CLE -1.5 closed · CLE covered
DEN @ TENSun, Oct 3 13:00 ETTEN +643.5DEN 26 at TEN 20TEN +6 closed · DEN covered
DET @ GBSun, Oct 3 13:00 ETGB +14.546DET 26 at GB 28GB +14.5 closed · DET covered
HOU @ OAKSun, Oct 3 16:05 ETOAK -3.543.5HOU 31 at OAK 24OAK -3.5 closed · HOU covered
IND @ JAXSun, Oct 3 16:05 ETJAX -745.5IND 28 at JAX 31JAX -7 closed · JAX covered
NYJ @ BUFSun, Oct 3 13:00 ETBUF -5.536.5NYJ 38 at BUF 14BUF -5.5 closed · NYJ covered
SEA @ STLSun, Oct 3 13:00 ETSTL -1.540SEA 3 at STL 20STL -1.5 closed · STL covered
SF @ ATLSun, Oct 3 13:00 ETATL +742.5SF 14 at ATL 16ATL +7 closed · SF covered
WAS @ PHISun, Oct 3 16:15 ETPHI +544WAS 17 at PHI 12PHI +5 closed · WAS covered
NE @ MIAMon, Oct 4 20:30 ETMIA +148NE 41 at MIA 14MIA +1 closed · NE covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

NYJ @ BUF
WIN BUF +5.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, division game 45-27 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, at home, division game 25-16 (61%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, at home, lost last week, division game 66-43 (61%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
HOU @ LV
LOSS HOU -3.5 3.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 20-8 (71%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 31-14 (69%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, better coach 17-8 (68%)
  • and 47 more angles on this side
IND @ JAC
WIN IND -7 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 24-12 (67%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 32-16 (67%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week 41-21 (66%)
  • and 34 more angles on this side
ARI @ LAC
LOSS LAC -10 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, elite QB 19-9 (68%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 32-16 (67%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 37-19 (66%)
  • and 21 more angles on this side
CHI @ NYG
WIN NYG -3.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, better QB 15-9 (62%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, at home, got blown out last week 13-8 (62%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, on turf 14-9 (61%)
  • and 4 more angles on this side
SF @ ATL
LOSS SF +7 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome, on turf 18-9 (67%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome, on turf 26-14 (65%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome 18-10 (64%)
  • and 19 more angles on this side
NE @ MIA TOTAL
LOSS Under 48.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), early season 19-8 (70%)
  • under when high total (48+), division game 25-13 (66%)
  • under when high total (48+) 70-40 (64%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
IND @ JAX TOTAL
WIN Over 45.5 1.0u
  • over when home team a big underdog, early season 15-6 (71%)
  • over when home team a big underdog 56-42 (57%)
CIN @ CLE TOTAL
LOSS Under 36.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 43-31 (58%)
SEA @ STL TOTAL
LOSS Over 40.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 46-32 (59%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
CAR @ NO TOTAL
LOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 34-21 (62%)
  • over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
  • over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
SF @ ATL TOTAL
LOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 45-36 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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