Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 15.
16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-7, -0.8u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 121-70, +62.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SF @  SDThu, Dec 16 20:20 ET | SD +10 | 44.5 | SF 7 at SD 34SD +10 closed · SD covered |
 ARI @  CARSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | CAR +2.5 | 37.5 | ARI 12 at CAR 19CAR +2.5 closed · CAR covered |
 ATL @  SEASun, Dec 19 16:05 ET | SEA -5.5 | 46 | ATL 34 at SEA 18SEA -5.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | MIA +5.5 | 40 | BUF 17 at MIA 14MIA +5.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | CIN +1 | 41.5 | CLE 17 at CIN 19CIN +1 closed · CIN covered |
 DEN @  OAKSun, Dec 19 16:15 ET | OAK +9 | 41.5 | DEN 23 at OAK 39OAK +9 closed · OAK covered |
 DET @  TBSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | TB +3.5 | 43 | DET 23 at TB 20TB +3.5 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  NESun, Dec 19 20:20 ET | NE +14 | 43.5 | GB 27 at NE 31NE +14 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | TEN +2 | 47.5 | HOU 17 at TEN 31TEN +2 closed · TEN covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | IND +4 | 48 | JAX 24 at IND 34IND +4 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  STLSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | STL +3 | 42.5 | KC 27 at STL 13STL +3 closed · KC covered |
 NO @  BALSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | BAL +1 | 45 | NO 24 at BAL 30BAL +1 closed · BAL covered |
 NYJ @  PITSun, Dec 19 16:15 ET | PIT +3.5 | 36 | NYJ 22 at PIT 17PIT +3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | NYG +3 | 46.5 | PHI 38 at NYG 31NYG +3 closed · PHI covered |
 WAS @  DALSun, Dec 19 13:00 ET | DAL +9.5 | 43.5 | WAS 30 at DAL 33DAL +9.5 closed · WAS covered |
 CHI @  MINMon, Dec 20 20:30 ET | MIN -5.5 | 34 | CHI 40 at MIN 14MIN -5.5 closed · CHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ SEA LOSS ATL -5.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 15-8 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week 52-32 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, blew someone out last week 52-32 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
NO @ BAL WIN BAL -1 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, worse QB, on turf 14-7 (67%)
BUF @ MIA LOSS BUF +5.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, on the road, bad QB 18-10 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, won last week, better coach 25-14 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better coach, low total (41 or under) 26-15 (63%)
- and 13 more angles on this side
GB @ NE WIN NE -14 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, on turf 29-19 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), better QB, elite QB 53-35 (60%)
ATL @ SEA TOTALLOSS Under 46.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 65-51 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, on turf 37-30 (55%)
DEN @ OAK TOTALLOSS Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 37-23 (62%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 43-31 (58%)
BUF @ MIA TOTALWIN Under 40.0 1.0u
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 49-36 (58%)
- under when windy, division game 34-25 (58%)
- under when windy, late season 36-29 (55%)
KC @ STL TOTALLOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
NYJ @ PIT TOTALWIN Over 36.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 50-38 (57%)
GB @ NE TOTALWIN Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, home team a big favorite 22-14 (61%)
NO @ BAL TOTALWIN Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 20-10 (67%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 21-12 (64%)
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 24-18 (57%)
CLE @ CIN TOTALLOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 24-18 (57%)
PHI @ NYG TOTALWIN Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 20-10 (67%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 21-12 (64%)
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 24-18 (57%)
ARI @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 37.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 46-32 (59%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.