Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 5.
14 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 11-3, +8.7u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 47-27, +18.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  CLESun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | CLE -3 | 41.5 | ATL 20 at CLE 10CLE -3 closed · ATL covered |
 CHI @  CARSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | CAR +2.5 | 33 | CHI 23 at CAR 6CAR +2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 DEN @  BALSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | BAL +8 | 39.5 | DEN 17 at BAL 31BAL +8 closed · BAL covered |
 GB @  WASSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | WAS -2.5 | 45.5 | GB 13 at WAS 16WAS -2.5 closed · WAS covered |
 JAX @  BUFSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | BUF +2.5 | 41.5 | JAX 36 at BUF 26BUF +2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  INDSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | IND +7.5 | 46 | KC 9 at IND 19IND +7.5 closed · IND covered |
 NO @  ARISun, Oct 10 16:05 ET | ARI -6.5 | 45.5 | NO 20 at ARI 30ARI -6.5 closed · ARI covered |
 NYG @  HOUSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | HOU +3 | 48.5 | NYG 34 at HOU 10HOU +3 closed · NYG covered |
 PHI @  SFSun, Oct 10 20:20 ET | SF +3 | 39.5 | PHI 27 at SF 24SF +3 closed · PHI covered |
 SD @  OAKSun, Oct 10 16:15 ET | OAK -7 | 44 | SD 27 at OAK 35OAK -7 closed · OAK covered |
 STL @  DETSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | DET +3 | 43.5 | STL 6 at DET 44DET +3 closed · DET covered |
 TB @  CINSun, Oct 10 13:00 ET | CIN +6.5 | 38 | TB 24 at CIN 21CIN +6.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  DALSun, Oct 10 16:15 ET | DAL +6.5 | 43.5 | TEN 34 at DAL 27DAL +6.5 closed · TEN covered |
 MIN @  NYJMon, Oct 11 21:15 ET | NYJ +4 | 38 | MIN 20 at NYJ 29NYJ +4 closed · NYJ covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ CLE LOSS ATL -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach 108-72 (60%)
DEN @ BAL LOSS BAL -8 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better QB, better coach 56-31 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 44-25 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 57-33 (63%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
JAC @ BUF WIN BUF -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 35-19 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, better coach 23-13 (64%)
- and 21 more angles on this side
CHI @ CAR WIN CAR -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 63-36 (64%)
LAC @ 
LV WIN LAC -7 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 24-12 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 32-16 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week 41-21 (66%)
- and 34 more angles on this side
NO @ ARI WIN NO -6.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, elite QB, in a dome 21-12 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 28-16 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 36-21 (63%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
PHI @ SF WIN PHI +3 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 38-22 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 24-16 (60%)
SD @ OAK TOTALWIN Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when home team a big underdog, early season 15-6 (71%)
- over when a new starting QB, early season 34-21 (62%)
- over when home team a big underdog 56-42 (57%)
STL @ DET TOTALWIN Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
NO @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 45.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 34-21 (62%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
DEN @ BAL TOTALWIN Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 45-36 (56%)
PHI @ SF TOTALWIN Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 34-21 (62%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 46-32 (59%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
JAX @ BUF TOTALWIN Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 34-21 (62%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
CHI @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 33.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 34-21 (62%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.