Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 1.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-6, -0.7u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 6-6, -0.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NO @  GBThu, Sep 8 20:30 ET | GB +4.5 | 47.5 | NO 34 at GB 42GB +4.5 closed · GB covered |
 ATL @  CHISun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | CHI -1 | 40.5 | ATL 12 at CHI 30CHI -1 closed · CHI covered |
 BUF @  KCSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | KC +3.5 | 38.5 | BUF 41 at KC 7KC +3.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  ARISun, Sep 11 16:15 ET | ARI +6.5 | 37.5 | CAR 21 at ARI 28ARI +6.5 closed · ARI covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | CLE +6.5 | 36.5 | CIN 27 at CLE 17CLE +6.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  NYJSun, Sep 11 20:20 ET | NYJ +6.5 | 40.5 | DAL 24 at NYJ 27NYJ +6.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  TBSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | TB +1 | 43.5 | DET 27 at TB 20TB +1 closed · DET covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | HOU +9 | 44 | IND 7 at HOU 34HOU +9 closed · HOU covered |
 MIN @  SDSun, Sep 11 16:15 ET | SD +9 | 43.5 | MIN 17 at SD 24SD +9 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  WASSun, Sep 11 16:25 ET | WAS -1 | 40.5 | NYG 14 at WAS 28WAS -1 closed · WAS covered |
 PHI @  STLSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | STL -3.5 | 44 | PHI 31 at STL 13STL -3.5 closed · PHI covered |
 PIT @  BALSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | BAL +1 | 37 | PIT 7 at BAL 35BAL +1 closed · BAL covered |
 SEA @  SFSun, Sep 11 16:25 ET | SF +6 | 38 | SEA 17 at SF 33SF +6 closed · SF covered |
 TEN @  JAXSun, Sep 11 13:00 ET | JAX -1 | 38 | TEN 14 at JAX 16JAX -1 closed · JAX covered |
 NE @  MIAMon, Sep 12 19:00 ET | MIA -7 | 46.5 | NE 38 at MIA 24MIA -7 closed · NE covered |
 OAK @  DENMon, Sep 12 22:15 ET | DEN +3 | 42.5 | OAK 23 at DEN 20DEN +3 closed · OAK covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ CHI WIN ATL -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 52-31 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 35-21 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 75-47 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
LV @ DEN WIN DEN -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, division game 64-40 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, division game 75-48 (61%)
NE @ MIA LOSS NE -7 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 27-12 (69%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 22-11 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, division game 60-32 (65%)
- and 24 more angles on this side
PHI @ 
LAR WIN PHI -3.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 63-37 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, better coach 30-19 (61%)
PIT @ BAL WIN PIT +1 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, division game 17-9 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, division game 70-39 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, division game, low total (41 or under) 29-18 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
SEA @ SF LOSS SF -6 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, better coach, division game 72-40 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, better coach, division game 78-45 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, division game 56-36 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ JAC WIN TEN -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, division game 99-59 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game 75-45 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 75-47 (62%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
NYG @ WAS TOTALLOSS Under 40.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 51-38 (57%)
CIN @ CLE TOTALLOSS Under 36.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 51-38 (57%)
SEA @ SF TOTALLOSS Under 38.0 1.0u
- under when windy, division game 40-30 (57%)
CAR @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 37.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
MIN @ SD TOTALLOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 51-38 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.