Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 2.
16 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-7, +2.0u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 15-13, +1.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  WASSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | WAS +4.5 | 44.5 | ARI 21 at WAS 22WAS +4.5 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  TENSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | TEN -5.5 | 39.5 | BAL 13 at TEN 26TEN -5.5 closed · TEN covered |
 CHI @  NOSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | NO +4.5 | 46.5 | CHI 13 at NO 30NO +4.5 closed · NO covered |
 CIN @  DENSun, Sep 18 16:15 ET | DEN +3.5 | 40.5 | CIN 22 at DEN 24DEN +3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  INDSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | IND -1 | 39.5 | CLE 27 at IND 19IND -1 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  SFSun, Sep 18 16:05 ET | SF -3 | 41 | DAL 27 at SF 24SF -3 closed · push |
 GB @  CARSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | CAR -10.5 | 45.5 | GB 30 at CAR 23CAR -10.5 closed · CAR covered |
 HOU @  MIASun, Sep 18 16:15 ET | MIA -3 | 46.5 | HOU 23 at MIA 13MIA -3 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  NYJSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | NYJ +9 | 38 | JAX 3 at NYJ 32NYJ +9 closed · NYJ covered |
 KC @  DETSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | DET +9 | 45 | KC 3 at DET 48DET +9 closed · DET covered |
 OAK @  BUFSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | BUF +3.5 | 40.5 | OAK 35 at BUF 38BUF +3.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  ATLSun, Sep 18 20:20 ET | ATL -2.5 | 49 | PHI 31 at ATL 35ATL -2.5 closed · ATL covered |
 SD @  NESun, Sep 18 16:15 ET | NE +6.5 | 53.5 | SD 21 at NE 35NE +6.5 closed · NE covered |
 SEA @  PITSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | PIT +13.5 | 39.5 | SEA 0 at PIT 24PIT +13.5 closed · PIT covered |
 TB @  MINSun, Sep 18 13:00 ET | MIN +1 | 41 | TB 24 at MIN 20MIN +1 closed · TB covered |
 STL @  NYGMon, Sep 19 20:30 ET | NYG +7 | 43.5 | STL 16 at NYG 28NYG +7 closed · NYG covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ TEN LOSS BAL -5.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 48-22 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, elite QB 18-9 (67%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, won last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 24-13 (65%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
LV @ BUF WIN BUF -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 19-11 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 19-11 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, worse QB 34-21 (62%)
- and 12 more angles on this side
GB @ CAR WIN GB -10.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 27-12 (69%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 22-11 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better QB 34-19 (64%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
HOU @ MIA LOSS HOU -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better record 37-22 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week 59-37 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, blew someone out last week 59-37 (62%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CLE @ IND WIN IND +1 3.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 23-9 (72%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 27-12 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 15-7 (68%)
- and 21 more angles on this side
LAR @ NYG WIN LAR +7 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, worse QB 13-7 (65%)
PHI @ ATL LOSS PHI -2.5 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 14-6 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 48-22 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, elite QB 18-9 (67%)
- and 13 more angles on this side
PHI @ ATL TOTALLOSS Under 49.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), early season 21-10 (68%)
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
GB @ CAR TOTALWIN Over 45.5 1.0u
- over when home team a big underdog, early season 17-7 (71%)
- over when home team a big underdog 63-45 (58%)
CIN @ DEN TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
- over when low total (41 or under), home team off Monday night 30-21 (59%)
- over when home team off Monday night 65-51 (56%)
HOU @ MIA TOTALLOSS Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 30-14 (68%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 65-51 (56%)
CLE @ IND TOTALWIN Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
TB @ MIN TOTALWIN Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
SEA @ PIT TOTALLOSS Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 51-38 (57%)
OAK @ BUF TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
ARI @ WAS TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.