Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 12.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-6, +3.4u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 81-76, -0.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 GB @  DETThu, Nov 24 12:30 ET | DET -4 | 55 | GB 27 at DET 15DET -4 closed · GB covered |
 MIA @  DALThu, Nov 24 16:15 ET | DAL +7 | 45.5 | MIA 19 at DAL 20DAL +7 closed · MIA covered |
 SF @  BALThu, Nov 24 20:20 ET | BAL +3 | 38.5 | SF 6 at BAL 16BAL +3 closed · BAL covered |
 ARI @  STLSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | STL +1 | 40 | ARI 23 at STL 20STL +1 closed · ARI covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | NYJ +9.5 | 42.5 | BUF 24 at NYJ 28NYJ +9.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  INDSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | IND -3.5 | 46.5 | CAR 27 at IND 19IND -3.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  OAKSun, Nov 27 16:05 ET | OAK +3 | 40.5 | CHI 20 at OAK 25OAK +3 closed · OAK covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | CIN +6.5 | 38.5 | CLE 20 at CIN 23CIN +6.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DEN @  SDSun, Nov 27 16:15 ET | SD +4.5 | 42.5 | DEN 16 at SD 13SD +4.5 closed · DEN covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | JAX -6 | 37 | HOU 20 at JAX 13JAX -6 closed · HOU covered |
 MIN @  ATLSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | ATL +10 | 44 | MIN 14 at ATL 24ATL +10 closed · push |
 NE @  PHISun, Nov 27 16:15 ET | PHI -3 | 50.5 | NE 38 at PHI 20PHI -3 closed · NE covered |
 PIT @  KCSun, Nov 27 20:20 ET | KC -10.5 | 41.5 | PIT 13 at KC 9KC -10.5 closed · KC covered |
 TB @  TENSun, Nov 27 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 43.5 | TB 17 at TEN 23TEN +3 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  SEASun, Nov 27 16:05 ET | SEA +3 | 37 | WAS 23 at SEA 17SEA +3 closed · WAS covered |
 NYG @  NOMon, Nov 28 20:30 ET | NO +7 | 51 | NYG 24 at NO 49NO +7 closed · NO covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
NE @ PHI - model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 18-6 (75%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, better QB, better coach, high total (48+) 17-6 (74%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, better QB, better coach, high total (48+) 15-6 (71%)
- and 14 more angles on this side
NYG @ NO - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, in a dome, high total (48+) 17-7 (71%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 15-7 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, in a dome, high total (48+) 28-14 (67%)
- and 16 more angles on this side
NYG @ NO TOTAL- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), home team a big favorite 20-13 (61%)
GB @ DET TOTAL- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
PIT @ KC TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
- over when home team a big underdog 63-45 (58%)
- over when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 33-25 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CLE @ CIN TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 51-38 (57%)
ARI @ STL TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
MIN @ ATL TOTAL- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 91-74 (55%)
CHI @ OAK TOTAL- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
HOU @ JAX TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
WAS @ SEA TOTAL- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
SF @ BAL TOTAL- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.