Weekly Lines · 2011

Week 16.

16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 5-10, -3.1u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 114-109, +2.1u flat at -110.

Game	Market	Total	Final
HOU @ INDThu, Dec 22 20:20 ET	IND -7	40.5	HOU 16 at IND 19IND -7 closed · IND covered
ARI @ CINSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET	CIN +3.5	41	ARI 16 at CIN 23CIN +3.5 closed · CIN covered
CLE @ BALSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET	BAL +10.5	38	CLE 14 at BAL 20BAL +10.5 closed · CLE covered
DEN @ BUFSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET	BUF -3	43.5	DEN 14 at BUF 40BUF -3 closed · BUF covered
JAX @ TENSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET	TEN +8.5	38.5	JAX 17 at TEN 23TEN +8.5 closed · JAX covered
MIA @ NESat, Dec 24 13:00 ET	NE +7.5	49	MIA 24 at NE 27NE +7.5 closed · MIA covered
MIN @ WASSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET	WAS +6	43	MIN 33 at WAS 26WAS +6 closed · MIN covered
NYG @ NYJSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET	NYJ +1.5	45.5	NYG 29 at NYJ 14NYJ +1.5 closed · NYG covered
OAK @ KCSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET	KC +3	43	OAK 16 at KC 13KC +3 closed · OAK covered
PHI @ DALSat, Dec 24 16:15 ET	DAL -1.5	49.5	PHI 20 at DAL 7DAL -1.5 closed · PHI covered
SD @ DETSat, Dec 24 16:05 ET	DET -1	52.5	SD 10 at DET 38DET -1 closed · DET covered
SF @ SEASat, Dec 24 16:15 ET	SEA -1.5	36.5	SF 19 at SEA 17SEA -1.5 closed · SF covered
STL @ PITSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET	PIT +10	33.5	STL 0 at PIT 27PIT +10 closed · PIT covered
TB @ CARSat, Dec 24 13:00 ET	CAR +9	48.5	TB 16 at CAR 48CAR +9 closed · CAR covered
CHI @ GBSun, Dec 25 20:20 ET	GB +13	41.5	CHI 21 at GB 35GB +13 closed · GB covered
ATL @ NOMon, Dec 26 20:30 ET	NO +7	53	ATL 16 at NO 45NO +7 closed · NO covered

The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ATL @

WIN ATL +7 3.0u

model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better coach, in a dome 19-6 (76%)
model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 19-6 (76%)
model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 22-8 (73%)
and 29 more angles on this side

DEN @

BUF

WIN DEN -3 1.0u

model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, on turf 14-9 (61%)

NYG @

NYJ

LOSS NYJ -1.5 2.0u

model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, better record, on turf 17-8 (68%)
model likes them by 3.0+, at home, better record, on turf 26-14 (65%)
model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, worse QB, on turf 18-10 (64%)
and 7 more angles on this side

PHI @

DAL

WIN PHI -1.5 3.0u

model likes them by 0.5+, worse record, in a dome, high total (48+) 14-6 (70%)
model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 14-6 (70%)
model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 48-22 (69%)
and 23 more angles on this side

ATL @

NO TOTAL

LOSS Under 53.0 1.0u

under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
under when high total (48+), home team a big favorite 20-13 (61%)
and 2 more angles on this side

PHI @

DAL TOTAL

WIN Under 49.5 1.0u

under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
under when high total (48+), line inside 3 28-18 (61%)
and 1 more angle on this side

TB @

CAR TOTAL

LOSS Under 48.5 1.0u

under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
under when high total (48+), home team a big favorite 20-13 (61%)
and 2 more angles on this side

MIA @

NE TOTAL

LOSS Under 49.0 1.0u

under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
under when high total (48+), home team a big favorite 20-13 (61%)
and 2 more angles on this side

HOU @

IND TOTAL

LOSS Over 40.5 1.0u

over when on turf, home team a big underdog 24-15 (62%)
over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
over when in a dome, home team a big underdog 18-12 (60%)
and 5 more angles on this side

ARI @

CIN TOTAL

LOSS Over 41.0 1.0u

over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 57-43 (57%)
over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
over when on turf, a new starting QB 91-74 (55%)

DEN @

BUF TOTAL

WIN Over 43.5 1.0u

over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 31-23 (57%)

OAK @

KC TOTAL

LOSS Over 43.0 1.0u

over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 31-23 (57%)
over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)

NYG @

NYJ TOTAL

LOSS Over 45.5 1.0u

over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 31-23 (57%)

CHI @

GB TOTAL

LOSS Under 41.5 1.0u

under when home team a big favorite, late season 84-65 (56%)

JAX @

TEN TOTAL

LOSS Under 38.5 1.0u

under when home team a big favorite, late season 84-65 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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