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Weekly Lines · 2011

Week 15.

16 games and 20 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 7-13, -10.8u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 109-99, +5.2u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
JAX @ ATLThu, Dec 15 20:20 ETATL +1441.5JAX 14 at ATL 41ATL +14 closed · ATL covered
DAL @ TBSat, Dec 17 20:20 ETTB -747DAL 31 at TB 15TB -7 closed · DAL covered
BAL @ SDSun, Dec 18 20:20 ETSD -144.5BAL 14 at SD 34SD -1 closed · SD covered
CAR @ HOUSun, Dec 18 13:00 ETHOU +4.545CAR 28 at HOU 13HOU +4.5 closed · CAR covered
CIN @ STLSun, Dec 18 13:00 ETSTL -738.5CIN 20 at STL 13STL -7 closed · push
CLE @ ARISun, Dec 18 16:15 ETARI +637CLE 17 at ARI 20ARI +6 closed · CLE covered
DET @ OAKSun, Dec 18 16:05 ETOAK -147.5DET 28 at OAK 27OAK -1 closed · push
GB @ KCSun, Dec 18 13:00 ETKC -1146GB 14 at KC 19KC -11 closed · KC covered
MIA @ BUFSun, Dec 18 13:00 ETBUF -142.5MIA 30 at BUF 23BUF -1 closed · MIA covered
NE @ DENSun, Dec 18 16:15 ETDEN -747.5NE 41 at DEN 23DEN -7 closed · NE covered
NO @ MINSun, Dec 18 13:00 ETMIN -753.5NO 42 at MIN 20MIN -7 closed · NO covered
NYJ @ PHISun, Dec 18 16:15 ETPHI +344NYJ 19 at PHI 45PHI +3 closed · PHI covered
SEA @ CHISun, Dec 18 13:00 ETCHI +3.534.5SEA 38 at CHI 14CHI +3.5 closed · SEA covered
TEN @ INDSun, Dec 18 13:00 ETIND -6.541.5TEN 13 at IND 27IND -6.5 closed · IND covered
WAS @ NYGSun, Dec 18 13:00 ETNYG +5.545WAS 23 at NYG 10NYG +5.5 closed · WAS covered
PIT @ SFMon, Dec 19 20:30 ETSF +337PIT 3 at SF 20SF +3 closed · SF covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

JAC @ ATL
LOSS ATL -14 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome 83-48 (63%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better record, in a dome 23-14 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, better coach, in a dome 41-25 (62%)
  • and 13 more angles on this side
BAL @ LAC
LOSS BAL -1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 53-31 (63%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, better coach 17-11 (61%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, elite QB 23-15 (60%)
CAR @ HOU
LOSS CAR +4.5 3.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better coach, in a dome 19-6 (76%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better coach, in a dome 15-5 (75%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 29-11 (72%)
  • and 13 more angles on this side
SEA @ CHI
WIN CHI -3.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 71-41 (63%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 77-45 (63%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 81-51 (61%)
DAL @ TB
LOSS DAL -7 3.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, lost last week 14-6 (70%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 29-17 (63%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 29-18 (62%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
GB @ KC
WIN GB -11 3.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 38-16 (70%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 27-12 (69%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better record 29-13 (69%)
  • and 52 more angles on this side
NE @ DEN
LOSS NE -7 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 29-17 (63%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 29-18 (62%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better coach 34-22 (61%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
PIT @ SF
LOSS PIT +3 2.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 48-22 (69%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, won last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 24-13 (65%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 25-14 (64%)
  • and 7 more angles on this side
GB @ KC TOTAL
LOSS Over 46.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big underdog 63-45 (58%)
  • over when home team a big underdog, a new starting QB 33-25 (57%)
CIN @ STL TOTAL
LOSS Over 38.5 1.0u
  • over when late season, home team off Monday night 24-13 (65%)
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
  • over when in a dome, home team a big underdog 18-12 (60%)
  • and 7 more angles on this side
DAL @ TB TOTAL
LOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big underdog 63-45 (58%)
CAR @ HOU TOTAL
LOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
TEN @ IND TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
  • over when on turf, a new starting QB 91-74 (55%)
SEA @ CHI TOTAL
WIN Over 34.5 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 20-8 (71%)
  • over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 57-43 (57%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
NYJ @ PHI TOTAL
WIN Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 31-23 (57%)
MIA @ BUF TOTAL
WIN Over 42.5 1.0u
  • over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 31-23 (57%)
JAX @ ATL TOTAL
LOSS Under 41.5 1.0u
  • under when home team a big favorite, late season 84-65 (56%)
DET @ OAK TOTAL
WIN Over 47.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
PIT @ SF TOTAL
LOSS Over 37.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
BAL @ SD TOTAL
WIN Over 44.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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