Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 7.
13 games and 11 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-7, -5.0u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 50-43, +2.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  DETSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | DET +4.5 | 47 | ATL 23 at DET 16DET +4.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CHI @  TBSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | TB -1.5 | 44 | CHI 24 at TB 18TB -1.5 closed · CHI covered |
 DEN @  MIASun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | MIA -1 | 41.5 | DEN 18 at MIA 15MIA -1 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Oct 23 16:15 ET | MIN -10 | 47 | GB 33 at MIN 27MIN -10 closed · MIN covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 44 | HOU 41 at TEN 7TEN +3 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  NOSun, Oct 23 20:20 ET | NO +13.5 | 49 | IND 7 at NO 62NO +13.5 closed · NO covered |
 KC @  OAKSun, Oct 23 16:05 ET | OAK +3.5 | 41.5 | KC 28 at OAK 0OAK +3.5 closed · KC covered |
 PIT @  ARISun, Oct 23 16:05 ET | ARI -4 | 46 | PIT 32 at ARI 20ARI -4 closed · PIT covered |
 SD @  NYJSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | NYJ -1 | 43 | SD 21 at NYJ 27NYJ -1 closed · NYJ covered |
 SEA @  CLESun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | CLE +3 | 41 | SEA 3 at CLE 6CLE +3 closed · push |
 STL @  DALSun, Oct 23 16:15 ET | DAL +14 | 43 | STL 7 at DAL 34DAL +14 closed · DAL covered |
 WAS @  CARSun, Oct 23 13:00 ET | CAR +1.5 | 44.5 | WAS 20 at CAR 33CAR +1.5 closed · CAR covered |
 BAL @  JAXMon, Oct 24 20:30 ET | JAX -10 | 38.5 | BAL 7 at JAX 12JAX -10 closed · JAX covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ JAC - model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 19-7 (73%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 38-16 (70%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, low total (41 or under) 14-6 (70%)
- and 69 more angles on this side
LAR @ DAL - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 23-9 (72%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 30-13 (70%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better record, elite QB, in a dome 24-12 (67%)
- and 71 more angles on this side
KC @ 
LV - model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, better coach, division game 19-10 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, division game 99-59 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, won last week, better coach 20-12 (62%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
BAL @ JAX TOTAL- over when home team a big underdog 63-45 (58%)
GB @ MIN TOTAL- over when on turf, home team a big underdog 24-15 (62%)
- over when in a dome, home team a big underdog 18-12 (60%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
DEN @ MIA TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 30-14 (68%)
- over when a new starting QB, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
SD @ NYJ TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 30-14 (68%)
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
- over when home team off Monday night 65-51 (56%)
STL @ DAL TOTAL- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 91-74 (55%)
SEA @ CLE TOTAL- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
WAS @ CAR TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
CHI @ TB TOTAL- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.