Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 14.
16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-6, +5.2u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 102-86, +16.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CLE @  PITThu, Dec 8 20:20 ET | PIT +14 | 40 | CLE 3 at PIT 14PIT +14 closed · CLE covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 48 | ATL 31 at CAR 23CAR -3 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  SDSun, Dec 11 16:15 ET | SD +7 | 49.5 | BUF 10 at SD 37SD +7 closed · SD covered |
 CHI @  DENSun, Dec 11 16:05 ET | DEN +3.5 | 35 | CHI 10 at DEN 13DEN +3.5 closed · CHI covered |
 HOU @  CINSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | CIN +2.5 | 37.5 | HOU 20 at CIN 19CIN +2.5 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  BALSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | BAL +16.5 | 41.5 | IND 10 at BAL 24BAL +16.5 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  NYJSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | NYJ +10.5 | 35.5 | KC 10 at NYJ 37NYJ +10.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | DET +10 | 48 | MIN 28 at DET 34DET +10 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  WASSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | WAS -7.5 | 46.5 | NE 34 at WAS 27WAS -7.5 closed · WAS covered |
 NO @  TENSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | TEN -3.5 | 47.5 | NO 22 at TEN 17TEN -3.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Dec 11 20:20 ET | DAL +4.5 | 48.5 | NYG 37 at DAL 34DAL +4.5 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  GBSun, Dec 11 16:15 ET | GB +11.5 | 49.5 | OAK 16 at GB 46GB +11.5 closed · GB covered |
 PHI @  MIASun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | MIA +3 | 44.5 | PHI 26 at MIA 10MIA +3 closed · PHI covered |
 SF @  ARISun, Dec 11 16:05 ET | ARI -3.5 | 39 | SF 19 at ARI 21ARI -3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 TB @  JAXSun, Dec 11 13:00 ET | JAX -3 | 41.5 | TB 14 at JAX 41JAX -3 closed · JAX covered |
 STL @  SEAMon, Dec 12 20:30 ET | SEA +9 | 38 | STL 13 at SEA 30SEA +9 closed · SEA covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ CAR LOSS ATL -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, better coach, division game 48-26 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, division game 60-34 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, division game 99-59 (63%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
CHI @ DEN WIN CHI +3.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, lost last week, low total (41 or under) 44-29 (60%)
HOU @ CIN WIN CIN -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, on turf, low total (41 or under) 31-19 (62%)
MIN @ DET WIN DET -10 3.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, better record, in a dome, high total (48+) 17-6 (74%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), division game, in a dome 19-7 (73%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), division game, in a dome 19-7 (73%)
- and 18 more angles on this side
LV @ GB LOSS GB -11.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better QB, better coach 45-24 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 92-54 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, better coach 87-52 (63%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
NE @ WAS LOSS NE -7.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 48-22 (69%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 33-17 (66%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, better record, elite QB 24-13 (65%)
- and 16 more angles on this side
NYG @ DAL WIN NYG +4.5 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, worse record, in a dome, high total (48+) 14-6 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, in a dome, high total (48+) 22-12 (65%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, worse record, division game 37-21 (64%)
- and 11 more angles on this side
TB @ JAC WIN TB -3 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 16-7 (70%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 22-11 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 40-21 (66%)
- and 16 more angles on this side
NYG @ DAL TOTALLOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), late season 26-18 (59%)
ATL @ CAR TOTALLOSS Under 48.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 28-18 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), late season 26-18 (59%)
NE @ WAS TOTALWIN Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when home team a big underdog 63-45 (58%)
TB @ JAX TOTALWIN Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 30-14 (68%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 24-13 (65%)
- over when home team off Monday night 65-51 (56%)
SF @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 39.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
HOU @ CIN TOTALWIN Over 37.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 31-23 (57%)
- over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 57-43 (57%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CHI @ DEN TOTALLOSS Over 35.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.