Weekly Lines · 2011

Week 13.

16 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 12-4, +11.4u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 93-80, +10.8u flat at -110.

Game	Market	Total	Final
PHI @ SEAThu, Dec 1 20:20 ET	SEA -3	43.5	PHI 14 at SEA 31SEA -3 closed · SEA covered
ATL @ HOUSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET	HOU -1	38.5	ATL 10 at HOU 17HOU -1 closed · HOU covered
BAL @ CLESun, Dec 4 16:05 ET	CLE -7	38.5	BAL 24 at CLE 10CLE -7 closed · BAL covered
CAR @ TBSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET	TB -1	45.5	CAR 38 at TB 19TB -1 closed · CAR covered
CIN @ PITSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET	PIT +7	43.5	CIN 7 at PIT 35PIT +7 closed · PIT covered
DAL @ ARISun, Dec 4 16:15 ET	ARI -4	46.5	DAL 13 at ARI 19ARI -4 closed · ARI covered
DEN @ MINSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET	MIN +1	37.5	DEN 35 at MIN 32MIN +1 closed · DEN covered
DET @ NOSun, Dec 4 20:20 ET	NO +9.5	55	DET 17 at NO 31NO +9.5 closed · NO covered
GB @ NYGSun, Dec 4 16:15 ET	NYG -7	53.5	GB 38 at NYG 35NYG -7 closed · NYG covered
IND @ NESun, Dec 4 13:00 ET	NE +20.5	48.5	IND 24 at NE 31NE +20.5 closed · IND covered
KC @ CHISun, Dec 4 13:00 ET	CHI +9	35	KC 10 at CHI 3CHI +9 closed · KC covered
NYJ @ WASSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET	WAS -3	38.5	NYJ 34 at WAS 19WAS -3 closed · NYJ covered
OAK @ MIASun, Dec 4 13:00 ET	MIA +3.5	43	OAK 14 at MIA 34MIA +3.5 closed · MIA covered
STL @ SFSun, Dec 4 16:15 ET	SF +14	38.5	STL 0 at SF 26SF +14 closed · SF covered
TEN @ BUFSun, Dec 4 13:00 ET	BUF +1	43.5	TEN 23 at BUF 17BUF +1 closed · TEN covered
SD @ JAXMon, Dec 5 20:30 ET	JAX -3	39.5	SD 38 at JAX 14JAX -3 closed · SD covered

The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

KC @

CHI

WIN CHI -9 1.0u

model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 71-41 (63%)
model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 77-45 (63%)
model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 47-29 (62%)
and 2 more angles on this side

GB @

NYG

WIN GB -7 2.0u

model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 27-12 (69%)
model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 22-11 (67%)
model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better QB 34-19 (64%)
and 21 more angles on this side

LAC @

JAC

LOSS LAC -3 2.0u

model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 25-13 (66%)
model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 18-10 (64%)
model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 25-14 (64%)
and 1 more angle on this side

LAR @

WIN LAR +14 2.0u

model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, big underdog (7+), low total (41 or under) 22-10 (69%)
model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), low total (41 or under) 22-10 (69%)
model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 15-7 (68%)
and 8 more angles on this side

LV @

MIA

LOSS MIA -3.5 1.0u

model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, worse QB 44-28 (61%)

DEN @

MIN

WIN MIN -1 3.0u

model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 29-11 (72%)
model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 23-9 (72%)
model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 30-13 (70%)
and 40 more angles on this side

IND @

WIN NE -20.5 2.0u

model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better QB, better coach 45-24 (65%)
model fades them by 3.0+, at home, blew someone out last week, better QB 15-8 (65%)
model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, better coach 28-15 (65%)
and 47 more angles on this side

PHI @

SEA

WIN PHI -3 2.0u

model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, on turf 22-11 (67%)
model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, better coach 19-10 (66%)
model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better coach, on turf 24-13 (65%)
and 13 more angles on this side

TEN @

BUF

LOSS TEN +1 2.0u

model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, won last week, better record 20-9 (69%)
model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, won last week, better record 23-11 (68%)
model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 47-28 (63%)
and 4 more angles on this side

TEN @

BUF TOTAL

WIN Under 43.5 1.0u

under when windy, on turf 27-16 (63%)

ATL @

HOU TOTAL

LOSS Over 38.5 1.0u

over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
and 1 more angle on this side

DEN @

MIN TOTAL

WIN Over 37.5 1.0u

over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
and 2 more angles on this side

PHI @

SEA TOTAL

WIN Over 43.5 1.0u

over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 31-23 (57%)
over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
and 1 more angle on this side

CIN @

PIT TOTAL

WIN Under 43.5 1.0u

under when home team a big favorite, late season 84-65 (56%)

CAR @

TB TOTAL

WIN Over 45.5 1.0u

over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)

SD @

JAX TOTAL

WIN Over 39.5 1.0u

over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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