Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 6.
13 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-6, -1.7u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 46-36, +7.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  NYGSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | NYG +3 | 49 | BUF 24 at NYG 27NYG +3 closed · push |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | ATL +3.5 | 49 | CAR 17 at ATL 31ATL +3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CLE @  OAKSun, Oct 16 16:05 ET | OAK +6.5 | 44.5 | CLE 17 at OAK 24OAK +6.5 closed · OAK covered |
 DAL @  NESun, Oct 16 16:15 ET | NE +6.5 | 54.5 | DAL 16 at NE 20NE +6.5 closed · DAL covered |
 HOU @  BALSun, Oct 16 16:05 ET | BAL +7 | 43.5 | HOU 14 at BAL 29BAL +7 closed · BAL covered |
 IND @  CINSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | CIN +5 | 40 | IND 17 at CIN 27CIN +5 closed · CIN covered |
 JAX @  PITSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | PIT +12.5 | 40 | JAX 13 at PIT 17PIT +12.5 closed · JAX covered |
 MIN @  CHISun, Oct 16 20:20 ET | CHI +1 | 41.5 | MIN 10 at CHI 39CHI +1 closed · CHI covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Oct 16 16:15 ET | TB -6 | 49.5 | NO 20 at TB 26TB -6 closed · TB covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | WAS -3 | 46.5 | PHI 20 at WAS 13WAS -3 closed · PHI covered |
 SF @  DETSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | DET +5.5 | 45 | SF 25 at DET 19DET +5.5 closed · SF covered |
 STL @  GBSun, Oct 16 13:00 ET | GB +14 | 47 | STL 3 at GB 24GB +14 closed · GB covered |
 MIA @  NYJMon, Oct 17 20:30 ET | NYJ +7 | 41.5 | MIA 6 at NYJ 24NYJ +7 closed · NYJ covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
HOU @ BAL - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better QB, better coach 45-24 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, blew someone out last week, better QB 15-8 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, better coach 28-15 (65%)
- and 32 more angles on this side
DAL @ NE - model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, on turf 29-19 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, worse QB, high total (48+) 15-10 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse QB, on turf, high total (48+) 12-8 (60%)
NO @ TB - model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better record, division game 46-30 (60%)
JAC @ PIT - model fades them by 1.0+, elite QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 34-20 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 32-20 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 28-18 (61%)
NO @ TB TOTAL- under when high total (48+), early season 21-10 (68%)
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
CAR @ ATL TOTAL- under when high total (48+), early season 21-10 (68%)
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
BUF @ NYG TOTAL- under when high total (48+), early season 21-10 (68%)
- under when windy, on turf 27-16 (63%)
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
MIN @ CHI TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 30-14 (68%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 65-51 (56%)
SF @ DET TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 65-51 (56%)
STL @ GB TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big favorite 21-14 (60%)
MIA @ NYJ TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 42-25 (63%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 91-74 (55%)
CLE @ OAK TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.