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Weekly Lines · 2011

Week 4.

16 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 10-6, +2.2u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 33-24, +8.9u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
ATL @ SEASun, Oct 2 16:05 ETSEA -639.5ATL 30 at SEA 28SEA -6 closed · SEA covered
BUF @ CINSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETCIN -341.5BUF 20 at CIN 23CIN -3 closed · CIN covered
CAR @ CHISun, Oct 2 13:00 ETCHI +741.5CAR 29 at CHI 34CHI +7 closed · CAR covered
DEN @ GBSun, Oct 2 16:15 ETGB +1246.5DEN 23 at GB 49GB +12 closed · GB covered
DET @ DALSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETDAL +2.546DET 34 at DAL 30DAL +2.5 closed · DET covered
MIA @ SDSun, Oct 2 16:15 ETSD +6.545MIA 16 at SD 26SD +6.5 closed · SD covered
MIN @ KCSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETKC -340MIN 17 at KC 22KC -3 closed · KC covered
NE @ OAKSun, Oct 2 16:15 ETOAK -655NE 31 at OAK 19OAK -6 closed · NE covered
NO @ JAXSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETJAX -945NO 23 at JAX 10JAX -9 closed · NO covered
NYG @ ARISun, Oct 2 16:05 ETARI -145.5NYG 31 at ARI 27ARI -1 closed · NYG covered
NYJ @ BALSun, Oct 2 20:20 ETBAL +543NYJ 17 at BAL 34BAL +5 closed · BAL covered
PIT @ HOUSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETHOU +446PIT 10 at HOU 17HOU +4 closed · HOU covered
SF @ PHISun, Oct 2 13:00 ETPHI +9.543.5SF 24 at PHI 23PHI +9.5 closed · SF covered
TEN @ CLESun, Oct 2 13:00 ETCLE +137.5TEN 31 at CLE 13CLE +1 closed · TEN covered
WAS @ STLSun, Oct 2 13:00 ETSTL -344WAS 17 at STL 10STL -3 closed · WAS covered
IND @ TBMon, Oct 3 20:30 ETTB +1040IND 17 at TB 24TB +10 closed · IND covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ATL @ SEA
WIN ATL -6 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 30-13 (70%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 71-41 (63%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 60-35 (63%)
  • and 12 more angles on this side
NYJ @ BAL
WIN BAL -5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, better QB, elite QB 54-31 (64%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, won last week, elite QB 35-21 (62%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, elite QB 21-13 (62%)
  • and 9 more angles on this side
BUF @ CIN
WIN BUF -3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better record, worse QB 45-25 (64%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 47-28 (63%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 54-35 (61%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
DEN @ GB
WIN GB -12 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, elite QB, better coach 27-15 (64%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, better QB, elite QB 54-31 (64%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, won last week, elite QB 35-21 (62%)
  • and 5 more angles on this side
MIA @ LAC
WIN LAC -6.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, elite QB, better coach 27-15 (64%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, better QB, elite QB 54-31 (64%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, won last week, elite QB 35-21 (62%)
  • and 5 more angles on this side
WAS @ LAR
LOSS LAR +3 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 20-12 (62%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, in a dome 31-19 (62%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, worse QB, bad QB 16-10 (62%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
MIN @ KC
LOSS MIN -3 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse QB, bad QB 59-39 (60%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, worse QB, bad QB 63-42 (60%)
NE @ LV
LOSS NE -6 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 40-21 (66%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, elite QB, better coach 28-17 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, lost last week, better coach 69-42 (62%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
NO @ JAC
LOSS NO -9 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 27-12 (69%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 22-11 (67%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better QB 34-19 (64%)
  • and 11 more angles on this side
NYG @ ARI
WIN NYG -1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, won last week 41-27 (60%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, won last week, better QB 50-33 (60%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, better QB 18-12 (60%)
NO @ JAX TOTAL
LOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big underdog, early season 17-7 (71%)
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 42-25 (63%)
  • over when home team a big underdog 63-45 (58%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
DET @ DAL TOTAL
WIN Over 46.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 30-14 (68%)
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 65-51 (56%)
IND @ TB TOTAL
WIN Over 40.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 42-25 (63%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
NYG @ ARI TOTAL
WIN Over 45.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
MIA @ SD TOTAL
LOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
ATL @ SEA TOTAL
WIN Over 39.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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