Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 17.
16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-11, -12.5u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 118-120, -10.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  CINSun, Jan 1 16:15 ET | CIN -2.5 | 37.5 | BAL 24 at CIN 16CIN -2.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  NESun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | NE +10 | 49.5 | BUF 21 at NE 49NE +10 closed · NE covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | NO +7 | 54.5 | CAR 17 at NO 45NO +7 closed · NO covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | MIN +1.5 | 41.5 | CHI 17 at MIN 13MIN +1.5 closed · CHI covered |
 DAL @  NYGSun, Jan 1 20:20 ET | NYG +3 | 48 | DAL 14 at NYG 31NYG +3 closed · NYG covered |
 DET @  GBSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | GB -6.5 | 41.5 | DET 41 at GB 45GB -6.5 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | JAX +3 | 36.5 | IND 13 at JAX 19JAX +3 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Jan 1 16:15 ET | DEN +1 | 37 | KC 7 at DEN 3DEN +1 closed · KC covered |
 NYJ @  MIASun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | MIA +1.5 | 38 | NYJ 17 at MIA 19MIA +1.5 closed · MIA covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Jan 1 16:15 ET | CLE -7 | 33 | PIT 13 at CLE 9CLE -7 closed · CLE covered |
 SD @  OAKSun, Jan 1 16:15 ET | OAK +2.5 | 50.5 | SD 38 at OAK 26OAK +2.5 closed · SD covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Jan 1 16:15 ET | ARI +2.5 | 40.5 | SEA 20 at ARI 23ARI +2.5 closed · ARI covered |
 SF @  STLSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | STL -12.5 | 35.5 | SF 34 at STL 27STL -12.5 closed · STL covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Jan 1 16:15 ET | ATL +10 | 45.5 | TB 24 at ATL 45ATL +10 closed · ATL covered |
 TEN @  HOUSun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | HOU -1 | 38.5 | TEN 23 at HOU 22HOU -1 closed · push |
 WAS @  PHISun, Jan 1 13:00 ET | PHI +7 | 44 | WAS 10 at PHI 34PHI +7 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
TB @ ATL LOSS ATL -10 3.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), division game, in a dome 19-7 (73%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), division game, in a dome 19-7 (73%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 36-16 (69%)
- and 59 more angles on this side
BAL @ CIN LOSS BAL -2.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, division game 60-32 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, elite QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 24-13 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, division game 70-39 (64%)
- and 18 more angles on this side
IND @ JAC WIN IND +3 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, worse record, division game 39-26 (60%)
KC @ DEN LOSS KC +1 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, division game 60-34 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 71-41 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 77-45 (63%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
SF @ 
LAR LOSS SF -12.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), won last week, low total (41 or under) 18-8 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, won last week, better record, bad QB 23-13 (64%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, big favorite (7+), low total (41 or under) 23-13 (64%)
- and 18 more angles on this side
DAL @ NYG TOTALWIN Under 48.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 28-18 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), late season 26-18 (59%)
SD @ OAK TOTALLOSS Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 28-18 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), late season 26-18 (59%)
BUF @ NE TOTALLOSS Under 49.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), home team a big favorite 20-13 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), late season 26-18 (59%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DET @ GB TOTALLOSS Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 51-38 (57%)
- under when windy, division game 40-30 (57%)
BAL @ CIN TOTALLOSS Under 37.5 1.0u
- under when windy, on turf 27-16 (63%)
- under when windy, division game 40-30 (57%)
SEA @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ HOU TOTALWIN Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CHI @ MIN TOTALLOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
- over when on turf, a new starting QB 91-74 (55%)
KC @ DEN TOTALLOSS Over 37.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 31-23 (57%)
- over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 57-43 (57%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
IND @ JAX TOTALLOSS Over 36.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.