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Weekly Lines · 2011

Week 8.

13 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 8-6, +0.2u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 58-49, +2.6u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
ARI @ BALSun, Oct 30 13:00 ETBAL +1243ARI 27 at BAL 30BAL +12 closed · ARI covered
CIN @ SEASun, Oct 30 16:15 ETSEA -137.5CIN 34 at SEA 12SEA -1 closed · CIN covered
CLE @ SFSun, Oct 30 16:15 ETSF +938.5CLE 10 at SF 20SF +9 closed · SF covered
DAL @ PHISun, Oct 30 20:20 ETPHI +349DAL 7 at PHI 34PHI +3 closed · PHI covered
DET @ DENSun, Oct 30 16:05 ETDEN -343.5DET 45 at DEN 10DEN -3 closed · DET covered
IND @ TENSun, Oct 30 13:00 ETTEN +943.5IND 10 at TEN 27TEN +9 closed · TEN covered
JAX @ HOUSun, Oct 30 13:00 ETHOU +1041JAX 14 at HOU 24HOU +10 closed · push
MIA @ NYGSun, Oct 30 13:00 ETNYG +9.543.5MIA 17 at NYG 20NYG +9.5 closed · MIA covered
MIN @ CARSun, Oct 30 13:00 ETCAR +347MIN 24 at CAR 21CAR +3 closed · MIN covered
NE @ PITSun, Oct 30 16:15 ETPIT -352NE 17 at PIT 25PIT -3 closed · PIT covered
NO @ STLSun, Oct 30 13:00 ETSTL -13.548.5NO 21 at STL 31STL -13.5 closed · STL covered
WAS @ BUFSun, Oct 30 16:05 ETBUF +446.5WAS 0 at BUF 23BUF +4 closed · BUF covered
SD @ KCMon, Oct 31 20:30 ETKC -344.5SD 20 at KC 23KC -3 closed · KC covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ARI @ BAL
WIN BAL -12 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 22-10 (69%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 24-13 (65%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 26-15 (63%)
  • and 19 more angles on this side
IND @ TEN
LOSS IND +9 3.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, division game 14-6 (70%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better QB, division game 15-7 (68%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, division game 22-13 (63%)
  • and 5 more angles on this side
LAC @ KC
WIN LAC -3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, division game 33-19 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, elite QB, division game 35-23 (60%)
MIA @ NYG
LOSS MIA +9.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, worse QB 21-12 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, worse QB 24-15 (62%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, on turf 20-13 (61%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
DAL @ PHI
LOSS PHI -3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, at home, elite QB, division game 47-27 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 21-13 (62%)
NE @ PIT
WIN PIT +3 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, won last week, elite QB 35-20 (64%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, elite QB 63-40 (61%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, elite QB 12-8 (60%)
DAL @ PHI TOTAL
WIN Under 49.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 28-18 (61%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 51-38 (57%)
NE @ PIT TOTAL
WIN Under 52.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
  • under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 28-18 (61%)
ARI @ BAL TOTAL
WIN Over 43.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 51-38 (57%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 65-51 (56%)
WAS @ BUF TOTAL
LOSS Over 46.5 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
  • over when on turf, a new starting QB 91-74 (55%)
CIN @ SEA TOTAL
WIN Over 37.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
CLE @ SF TOTAL
LOSS Over 38.5 1.0u
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 51-38 (57%)
DET @ DEN TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
MIN @ CAR TOTAL
LOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 7 The 2011 record Week 9 →

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