Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 9.
14 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-7, -3.9u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 63-56, -1.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  INDSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | IND -6.5 | 45 | ATL 31 at IND 7IND -6.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  PITSun, Nov 6 20:20 ET | PIT +3.5 | 41.5 | BAL 23 at PIT 20PIT +3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 CIN @  TENSun, Nov 6 16:05 ET | TEN +1.5 | 41.5 | CIN 24 at TEN 17TEN +1.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  HOUSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | HOU +10.5 | 42.5 | CLE 12 at HOU 30HOU +10.5 closed · HOU covered |
 DEN @  OAKSun, Nov 6 16:05 ET | OAK +7 | 41.5 | DEN 38 at OAK 24OAK +7 closed · DEN covered |
 GB @  SDSun, Nov 6 16:15 ET | SD -5.5 | 50.5 | GB 45 at SD 38SD -5.5 closed · GB covered |
 MIA @  KCSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | KC +5 | 41 | MIA 31 at KC 3KC +5 closed · MIA covered |
 NYG @  NESun, Nov 6 16:15 ET | NE +9.5 | 51.5 | NYG 24 at NE 20NE +9.5 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | BUF +2.5 | 45 | NYJ 27 at BUF 11BUF +2.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SEA @  DALSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | DAL +11 | 46 | SEA 13 at DAL 23DAL +11 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  WASSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | WAS -5 | 38 | SF 19 at WAS 11WAS -5 closed · SF covered |
 STL @  ARISun, Nov 6 16:15 ET | ARI +1 | 41.5 | STL 13 at ARI 19ARI +1 closed · ARI covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Nov 6 13:00 ET | NO +9 | 50.5 | TB 16 at NO 27NO +9 closed · NO covered |
 CHI @  PHIMon, Nov 7 20:30 ET | PHI +9 | 47.5 | CHI 30 at PHI 24PHI +9 closed · CHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ PIT LOSS BAL +3.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, division game 17-9 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, worse record, elite QB 21-13 (62%)
CHI @ PHI WIN CHI +9 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, won last week, better record 29-18 (62%)
CIN @ TEN LOSS CIN +1.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better record 29-13 (69%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, won last week, better record 20-9 (69%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, won last week, better record 23-11 (68%)
- and 17 more angles on this side
SEA @ DAL WIN DAL -11 2.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, on turf 22-11 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, better coach 19-10 (66%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 19-10 (66%)
- and 34 more angles on this side
NYG @ NE WIN NE -9.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 60-35 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 65-39 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 40-24 (62%)
- and 15 more angles on this side
NYG @ NE TOTALWIN Under 51.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), home team a big favorite 20-13 (61%)
TB @ NO TOTALWIN Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), home team a big favorite 20-13 (61%)
MIA @ KC TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
- over when low total (41 or under), home team off Monday night 30-21 (59%)
- over when home team off Monday night 65-51 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DEN @ OAK TOTALLOSS Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 40-24 (62%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 51-38 (57%)
STL @ ARI TOTALLOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
SF @ WAS TOTALLOSS Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
SEA @ DAL TOTALLOSS Over 46.0 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 51-38 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.