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Weekly Lines · 2011

Week 5.

13 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 7-6, +0.2u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 40-30, +9.1u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
ARI @ MINSun, Oct 9 13:00 ETMIN +3.544.5ARI 10 at MIN 34MIN +3.5 closed · MIN covered
CIN @ JAXSun, Oct 9 13:00 ETJAX -137CIN 30 at JAX 20JAX -1 closed · CIN covered
GB @ ATLSun, Oct 9 20:20 ETATL -653.5GB 25 at ATL 14ATL -6 closed · GB covered
KC @ INDSun, Oct 9 13:00 ETIND +137.5KC 28 at IND 24IND +1 closed · KC covered
NO @ CARSun, Oct 9 13:00 ETCAR -6.551NO 30 at CAR 27CAR -6.5 closed · CAR covered
NYJ @ NESun, Oct 9 16:15 ETNE +7.550.5NYJ 21 at NE 30NE +7.5 closed · NE covered
OAK @ HOUSun, Oct 9 13:00 ETHOU +4.547.5OAK 25 at HOU 20HOU +4.5 closed · OAK covered
PHI @ BUFSun, Oct 9 13:00 ETBUF -352.5PHI 24 at BUF 31BUF -3 closed · BUF covered
SD @ DENSun, Oct 9 16:15 ETDEN -3.547SD 29 at DEN 24DEN -3.5 closed · SD covered
SEA @ NYGSun, Oct 9 13:00 ETNYG +1043.5SEA 36 at NYG 25NYG +10 closed · SEA covered
TB @ SFSun, Oct 9 16:05 ETSF +2.541TB 3 at SF 48SF +2.5 closed · SF covered
TEN @ PITSun, Oct 9 13:00 ETPIT +340TEN 17 at PIT 38PIT +3 closed · PIT covered
CHI @ DETMon, Oct 10 20:30 ETDET +6.547CHI 13 at DET 24DET +6.5 closed · DET covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ARI @ MIN
LOSS ARI +3.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, lost last week, better record, in a dome 15-10 (60%)
CHI @ DET
WIN CHI +6.5 3.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better coach, in a dome 19-6 (76%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better coach, in a dome 15-5 (75%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 29-11 (72%)
  • and 41 more angles on this side
GB @ ATL
LOSS GB -6 3.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, won last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 19-6 (76%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 19-6 (76%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 21-7 (75%)
  • and 33 more angles on this side
NO @ CAR
WIN NO -6.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, division game 70-39 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, elite QB, better coach, division game 61-36 (63%)
GB @ ATL TOTAL
WIN Under 53.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), early season 21-10 (68%)
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
  • under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
NYJ @ NE TOTAL
LOSS Under 50.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), early season 21-10 (68%)
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
  • under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
PHI @ BUF TOTAL
LOSS Under 52.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), early season 21-10 (68%)
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
  • under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
NO @ CAR TOTAL
LOSS Under 51.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), early season 21-10 (68%)
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
  • under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
KC @ IND TOTAL
WIN Over 37.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 30-14 (68%)
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 42-25 (63%)
  • over when a new starting QB, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
CIN @ JAX TOTAL
WIN Over 37.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 42-25 (63%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 84-67 (56%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
SEA @ NYG TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 51-38 (57%)
TB @ SF TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
OAK @ HOU TOTAL
LOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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