Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 3.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-5, +5.4u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 23-18, +6.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  SEASun, Sep 25 16:15 ET | SEA -3 | 42.5 | ARI 10 at SEA 13SEA -3 closed · SEA covered |
 ATL @  TBSun, Sep 25 16:15 ET | TB +1 | 45 | ATL 13 at TB 16TB +1 closed · TB covered |
 BAL @  STLSun, Sep 25 16:05 ET | STL -5.5 | 41.5 | BAL 37 at STL 7STL -5.5 closed · BAL covered |
 DEN @  TENSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | TEN +7 | 43.5 | DEN 14 at TEN 17TEN +7 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | MIN -3 | 44.5 | DET 26 at MIN 23MIN -3 closed · push |
 GB @  CHISun, Sep 25 16:15 ET | CHI -4 | 45.5 | GB 27 at CHI 17CHI -4 closed · GB covered |
 HOU @  NOSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | NO +3.5 | 51 | HOU 33 at NO 40NO +3.5 closed · NO covered |
 JAX @  CARSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | CAR +3.5 | 43 | JAX 10 at CAR 16CAR +3.5 closed · CAR covered |
 KC @  SDSun, Sep 25 16:05 ET | SD +14 | 44.5 | KC 17 at SD 20SD +14 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  CLESun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | CLE -1 | 42.5 | MIA 16 at CLE 17CLE -1 closed · CLE covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | BUF -7 | 54 | NE 31 at BUF 34BUF -7 closed · BUF covered |
 NYG @  PHISun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | PHI +9 | 46.5 | NYG 29 at PHI 16PHI +9 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  OAKSun, Sep 25 16:05 ET | OAK -1 | 40 | NYJ 24 at OAK 34OAK -1 closed · OAK covered |
 PIT @  INDSun, Sep 25 20:20 ET | IND -10.5 | 39.5 | PIT 23 at IND 20IND -10.5 closed · IND covered |
 SF @  CINSun, Sep 25 13:00 ET | CIN +1 | 38.5 | SF 13 at CIN 8CIN +1 closed · SF covered |
 WAS @  DALMon, Sep 26 20:30 ET | DAL +3.5 | 44.5 | WAS 16 at DAL 18DAL +3.5 closed · WAS covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ 
LAR LOSS BAL -5.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 21-10 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better record, elite QB, in a dome 24-12 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 26-13 (67%)
- and 23 more angles on this side
JAC @ CAR LOSS CAR -3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 81-51 (61%)
NYJ @ 
LV WIN NYJ -1 3.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 19-7 (73%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 25-10 (71%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 23-10 (70%)
- and 15 more angles on this side
PIT @ IND WIN PIT -10.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 18-4 (82%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, in a dome 17-4 (81%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 21-7 (75%)
- and 146 more angles on this side
SF @ CIN LOSS SF +1 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, better coach, low total (41 or under) 20-11 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 71-41 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 60-35 (63%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
HOU @ NO TOTALLOSS Under 51.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), early season 21-10 (68%)
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
PIT @ IND TOTALWIN Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when home team a big underdog, early season 17-7 (71%)
- over when on turf, home team a big underdog 24-15 (62%)
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
BAL @ STL TOTALWIN Over 41.5 1.0u
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
- over when home team off Monday night 65-51 (56%)
GB @ CHI TOTALWIN Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 51-38 (57%)
ARI @ SEA TOTALWIN Under 42.5 1.0u
- under when windy, on turf 27-16 (63%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 51-38 (57%)
- under when windy, division game 40-30 (57%)
ATL @ TB TOTALWIN Under 45.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 51-38 (57%)
NYJ @ OAK TOTALWIN Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
SF @ CIN TOTALLOSS Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-37 (61%)
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.