Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 11.
14 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-7, -2.8u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 75-70, -4.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYJ @  DENThu, Nov 17 20:20 ET | DEN -6.5 | 38.5 | NYJ 13 at DEN 17DEN -6.5 closed · DEN covered |
 ARI @  SFSun, Nov 20 16:05 ET | SF +10 | 40.5 | ARI 7 at SF 23SF +10 closed · SF covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | MIA +3 | 44 | BUF 8 at MIA 35MIA +3 closed · MIA covered |
 CAR @  DETSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | DET +7 | 47.5 | CAR 35 at DET 49DET +7 closed · DET covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | BAL +7 | 39.5 | CIN 24 at BAL 31BAL +7 closed · push |
 DAL @  WASSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | WAS -7 | 43 | DAL 27 at WAS 24WAS -7 closed · WAS covered |
 JAX @  CLESun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | CLE +1 | 34.5 | JAX 10 at CLE 14CLE +1 closed · CLE covered |
 OAK @  MINSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | MIN +1 | 46 | OAK 27 at MIN 21MIN +1 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Nov 20 20:20 ET | NYG +6 | 45 | PHI 17 at NYG 10NYG +6 closed · PHI covered |
 SD @  CHISun, Nov 20 16:15 ET | CHI +4.5 | 45 | SD 20 at CHI 31CHI +4.5 closed · CHI covered |
 SEA @  STLSun, Nov 20 16:05 ET | STL +3 | 40.5 | SEA 24 at STL 7STL +3 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  GBSun, Nov 20 13:00 ET | GB +13.5 | 48.5 | TB 26 at GB 35GB +13.5 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  ATLSun, Nov 20 16:15 ET | ATL +6 | 44 | TEN 17 at ATL 23ATL +6 closed · push |
 KC @  NEMon, Nov 21 20:30 ET | NE +17 | 46.5 | KC 3 at NE 34NE +17 closed · NE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DAL @ WAS - model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, division game 28-14 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, division game 70-39 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, division game 44-26 (63%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
BUF @ MIA - model fades them by 0.5+, at home, better coach, division game 78-45 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, division game 56-36 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, division game 39-26 (60%)
KC @ NE - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better QB, better coach 45-24 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, blew someone out last week, better QB 15-8 (65%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, better coach 28-15 (65%)
- and 44 more angles on this side
NYJ @ DEN - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 14-8 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 28-16 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, got blown out last week, better coach 28-16 (64%)
- and 22 more angles on this side
TB @ GB - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, worse QB, high total (48+) 15-10 (60%)
DAL @ WAS TOTAL- over when home team a big underdog 63-45 (58%)
OAK @ MIN TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 30-14 (68%)
- over when a new starting QB, home team off Monday night 22-15 (60%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 59-42 (58%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
BUF @ MIA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 51-38 (57%)
- under when windy, division game 40-30 (57%)
SEA @ STL TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 53-38 (58%)
KC @ NE TOTAL- over when on turf, a new starting QB 91-74 (55%)
PHI @ NYG TOTAL- over when on turf, a new starting QB 91-74 (55%)
NYJ @ DEN TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.