Weekly Lines · 2011
Week 10.
16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2011. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-7, +0.1u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 70-63, -1.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 OAK @  SDThu, Nov 10 20:20 ET | SD +7.5 | 47.5 | OAK 24 at SD 17SD +7.5 closed · OAK covered |
 ARI @  PHISun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | PHI +13.5 | 47 | ARI 21 at PHI 17PHI +13.5 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  SEASun, Nov 13 16:05 ET | SEA -7 | 38.5 | BAL 17 at SEA 22SEA -7 closed · SEA covered |
 BUF @  DALSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | DAL +4.5 | 48.5 | BUF 7 at DAL 44DAL +4.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  KCSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | KC +3 | 42 | DEN 17 at KC 10KC +3 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Nov 13 16:15 ET | CHI +2.5 | 42.5 | DET 13 at CHI 37CHI +2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 HOU @  TBSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | TB -3.5 | 45.5 | HOU 37 at TB 9TB -3.5 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  INDSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | IND -3 | 37.5 | JAX 17 at IND 3IND -3 closed · JAX covered |
 NE @  NYJSun, Nov 13 20:20 ET | NYJ +2.5 | 47 | NE 37 at NYJ 16NYJ +2.5 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  ATLSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | ATL +1 | 49.5 | NO 26 at ATL 23ATL +1 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  SFSun, Nov 13 16:15 ET | SF +4 | 42.5 | NYG 20 at SF 27SF +4 closed · SF covered |
 PIT @  CINSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | CIN -3.5 | 40.5 | PIT 24 at CIN 17CIN -3.5 closed · PIT covered |
 STL @  CLESun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | CLE +2.5 | 36.5 | STL 13 at CLE 12CLE +2.5 closed · STL covered |
 TEN @  CARSun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | CAR +3.5 | 47.5 | TEN 30 at CAR 3CAR +3.5 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  MIASun, Nov 13 13:00 ET | MIA +4 | 38.5 | WAS 9 at MIA 20MIA +4 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  GBMon, Nov 14 20:30 ET | GB +12.5 | 49 | MIN 7 at GB 45GB +12.5 closed · GB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ SEA WIN BAL -7 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 29-17 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, elite QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 34-20 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 29-18 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
LAR @ CLE WIN CLE -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 24-13 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 27-15 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 25-14 (64%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
BUF @ DAL WIN DAL -4.5 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 18-6 (75%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, better QB, better coach, high total (48+) 17-6 (74%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, better QB, better coach, high total (48+) 15-6 (71%)
- and 17 more angles on this side
HOU @ TB WIN HOU -3.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, won last week 41-27 (60%)
JAC @ IND LOSS JAC -3 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, lost last week, in a dome 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, division game, in a dome 49-32 (60%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, more rest than the opponent, in a dome 12-8 (60%)
WAS @ MIA WIN MIA -4 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, bad QB 17-8 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, bad QB 18-9 (67%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, won last week, blew someone out last week, bad QB 18-9 (67%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
ARI @ PHI WIN PHI -13.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 40-24 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better QB, better coach 66-40 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 47-29 (62%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
PIT @ CIN LOSS PIT -3.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 25-13 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, division game 70-39 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 25-14 (64%)
- and 16 more angles on this side
MIN @ GB TOTALLOSS Under 49.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), home team a big favorite 20-13 (61%)
NO @ ATL TOTALWIN Under 49.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 28-18 (61%)
BUF @ DAL TOTALLOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 45-25 (64%)
- under when high total (48+) 78-50 (61%)
PIT @ CIN TOTALLOSS Under 40.5 1.0u
- under when windy, on turf 27-16 (63%)
- under when windy, division game 40-30 (57%)
JAX @ IND TOTALLOSS Over 37.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 48-31 (61%)
WAS @ MIA TOTALLOSS Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), a new starting QB 145-117 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.