Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 1.
16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-7, -0.8u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 7-7, -0.8u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  NYGWed, Sep 5 20:30 ET | NYG +3.5 | 45.5 | DAL 24 at NYG 17NYG +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 ATL @  KCSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | KC -1 | 43 | ATL 40 at KC 24KC -1 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | NYJ +3 | 39.5 | BUF 28 at NYJ 48NYJ +3 closed · NYJ covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Sep 9 16:25 ET | TB -3 | 45.5 | CAR 10 at TB 16TB -3 closed · TB covered |
 IND @  CHISun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | CHI +10 | 41.5 | IND 21 at CHI 41CHI +10 closed · CHI covered |
 JAX @  MINSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | MIN +3.5 | 38 | JAX 23 at MIN 26MIN +3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 MIA @  HOUSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | HOU +13 | 41.5 | MIA 10 at HOU 30HOU +13 closed · HOU covered |
 NE @  TENSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | TEN -4.5 | 48 | NE 34 at TEN 13TEN -4.5 closed · NE covered |
 PHI @  CLESun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | CLE -9 | 42 | PHI 17 at CLE 16CLE -9 closed · CLE covered |
 PIT @  DENSun, Sep 9 20:20 ET | DEN +2.5 | 45.5 | PIT 19 at DEN 31DEN +2.5 closed · DEN covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Sep 9 16:25 ET | ARI -1 | 40.5 | SEA 16 at ARI 20ARI -1 closed · ARI covered |
 SF @  GBSun, Sep 9 16:25 ET | GB +6 | 46.5 | SF 30 at GB 22GB +6 closed · SF covered |
 STL @  DETSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | DET +9 | 46 | STL 23 at DET 27DET +9 closed · STL covered |
 WAS @  NOSun, Sep 9 13:00 ET | NO +9.5 | 50 | WAS 40 at NO 32NO +9.5 closed · WAS covered |
 CIN @  BALMon, Sep 10 19:00 ET | BAL +7 | 42.5 | CIN 13 at BAL 44BAL +7 closed · BAL covered |
 SD @  OAKMon, Sep 10 22:15 ET | OAK +1 | 47.5 | SD 22 at OAK 14OAK +1 closed · SD covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIA @ HOU LOSS HOU -13 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, at home, in a dome 37-22 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 105-67 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome 97-62 (61%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
LAC @ 
LV LOSS LAC +1 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, elite QB, division game 19-10 (66%)
PHI @ CLE WIN PHI -9 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better QB 41-21 (66%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, better QB 35-20 (64%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road 51-30 (63%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
PIT @ DEN LOSS PIT +2.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 51-30 (63%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 74-46 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 48-31 (61%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
SEA @ ARI WIN SEA -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 21-13 (62%)
PHI @ CLE TOTALLOSS Over 42.0 1.0u
- over when home team a big underdog, early season 21-8 (72%)
- over when home team a big underdog 77-54 (59%)
IND @ CHI TOTALLOSS Under 41.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 43-27 (61%)
CAR @ TB TOTALWIN Under 45.5 1.0u
- under when windy, division game 46-35 (57%)
- under when windy, line inside 3 38-30 (56%)
SEA @ ARI TOTALLOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
JAX @ MIN TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
BUF @ NYJ TOTALWIN Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
WAS @ NO TOTALLOSS Under 50.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
NE @ TEN TOTALWIN Under 48.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
SF @ GB TOTALWIN Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.