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Weekly Lines · 2012

Week 12.

16 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 8-8, -2.0u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 82-81, -14.9u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
HOU @ DETThu, Nov 22 12:30 ETDET -3.548.5HOU 34 at DET 31DET -3.5 closed · DET covered
NE @ NYJThu, Nov 22 20:20 ETNYJ -748NE 49 at NYJ 19NYJ -7 closed · NE covered
WAS @ DALThu, Nov 22 16:15 ETDAL +3.547WAS 38 at DAL 31DAL +3.5 closed · WAS covered
ATL @ TBSun, Nov 25 13:00 ETTB -150.5ATL 24 at TB 23TB -1 closed · push
BAL @ SDSun, Nov 25 16:05 ETSD -146.5BAL 16 at SD 13SD -1 closed · BAL covered
BUF @ INDSun, Nov 25 13:00 ETIND +251BUF 13 at IND 20IND +2 closed · IND covered
DEN @ KCSun, Nov 25 13:00 ETKC -1041.5DEN 17 at KC 9KC -10 closed · KC covered
GB @ NYGSun, Nov 25 20:20 ETNYG +150GB 10 at NYG 38NYG +1 closed · NYG covered
MIN @ CHISun, Nov 25 13:00 ETCHI +6.538.5MIN 10 at CHI 28CHI +6.5 closed · CHI covered
OAK @ CINSun, Nov 25 13:00 ETCIN +9.550.5OAK 10 at CIN 34CIN +9.5 closed · CIN covered
PIT @ CLESun, Nov 25 13:00 ETCLE -133PIT 14 at CLE 20CLE -1 closed · CLE covered
SEA @ MIASun, Nov 25 13:00 ETMIA -337.5SEA 21 at MIA 24MIA -3 closed · MIA covered
SF @ NOSun, Nov 25 16:25 ETNO -150SF 31 at NO 21NO -1 closed · SF covered
STL @ ARISun, Nov 25 16:25 ETARI +136STL 31 at ARI 17ARI +1 closed · STL covered
TEN @ JAXSun, Nov 25 13:00 ETJAX -3.545TEN 19 at JAX 24JAX -3.5 closed · JAX covered
CAR @ PHIMon, Nov 26 20:30 ETPHI -341.5CAR 30 at PHI 22PHI -3 closed · CAR covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

LAR @ ARI
WIN ARI -1 2.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 43-20 (68%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 25-13 (66%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 87-50 (64%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
BAL @ LAC
LOSS LAC +1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, better QB, elite QB 60-39 (61%)
GB @ NYG
LOSS NYG -1 2.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, high total (48+) 14-7 (67%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, on turf, high total (48+) 17-9 (65%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, worse QB, on turf, high total (48+) 18-10 (64%)
  • and 15 more angles on this side
SEA @ MIA
LOSS SEA -3 2.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, more rest than the opponent 19-9 (68%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on the road, more rest than the opponent 17-9 (65%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, better record 13-7 (65%)
  • and 9 more angles on this side
TEN @ JAC
WIN TEN -3.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, division game 30-17 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, division game 50-29 (63%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better record 44-26 (63%)
  • and 11 more angles on this side
DEN @ KC TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
  • over when home team a big underdog 77-54 (59%)
MIN @ CHI TOTAL
LOSS Over 38.5 1.0u
  • over when home team off Monday night 81-61 (57%)
STL @ ARI TOTAL
WIN Over 36.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 100-77 (56%)
PIT @ CLE TOTAL
WIN Over 33.0 1.0u
  • over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 36-26 (58%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 100-77 (56%)
  • over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 60-47 (56%)
CAR @ PHI TOTAL
WIN Over 41.5 1.0u
  • over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 36-26 (58%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 100-77 (56%)
BUF @ IND TOTAL
WIN Under 51.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
ATL @ TB TOTAL
WIN Under 50.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
HOU @ DET TOTAL
LOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
OAK @ CIN TOTAL
LOSS Over 50.5 1.0u
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-45 (56%)
BAL @ SD TOTAL
LOSS Over 46.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
SEA @ MIA TOTAL
WIN Over 37.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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