Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 10.
14 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-3, +3.7u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 67-64, -10.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 IND @  JAXThu, Nov 8 20:20 ET | JAX -3 | 43.5 | IND 27 at JAX 10JAX -3 closed · IND covered |
 ATL @  NOSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | NO -1 | 54 | ATL 27 at NO 31NO -1 closed · NO covered |
 BUF @  NESun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | NE +13.5 | 54 | BUF 31 at NE 37NE +13.5 closed · BUF covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Nov 11 16:25 ET | PHI -1 | 44 | DAL 38 at PHI 23PHI -1 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  CARSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | CAR -3.5 | 46.5 | DEN 36 at CAR 14CAR -3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  MINSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | MIN -3 | 46 | DET 24 at MIN 34MIN -3 closed · MIN covered |
 HOU @  CHISun, Nov 11 20:20 ET | CHI +1 | 37 | HOU 13 at CHI 6CHI +1 closed · HOU covered |
 NYG @  CINSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | CIN -3.5 | 47 | NYG 13 at CIN 31CIN -3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 NYJ @  SEASun, Nov 11 16:05 ET | SEA +5 | 38 | NYJ 7 at SEA 28SEA +5 closed · SEA covered |
 OAK @  BALSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | BAL +9.5 | 48 | OAK 20 at BAL 55BAL +9.5 closed · BAL covered |
 SD @  TBSun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | TB +3 | 46.5 | SD 24 at TB 34TB +3 closed · TB covered |
 STL @  SFSun, Nov 11 16:25 ET | SF +13.5 | 38 | STL 24 at SF 24SF +13.5 closed · STL covered |
 TEN @  MIASun, Nov 11 13:00 ET | MIA +6.5 | 44 | TEN 37 at MIA 3MIA +6.5 closed · TEN covered |
 KC @  PITMon, Nov 12 20:30 ET | PIT +12.5 | 39.5 | KC 13 at PIT 16PIT +12.5 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
HOU @ CHI - model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, better QB 49-32 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week 87-58 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, won last week, blew someone out last week 87-58 (60%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
DAL @ PHI - model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, division game 38-23 (62%)
NYG @ CIN - model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 77-48 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 76-50 (60%)
NYJ @ SEA - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, on turf, low total (41 or under) 35-22 (61%)
DAL @ PHI TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 37-16 (70%)
- over when home team off Monday night 81-61 (57%)
STL @ SF TOTAL- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 18-9 (67%)
- over when home team off Monday night 81-61 (57%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-45 (56%)
KC @ PIT TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 43-27 (61%)
- under when windy, home team a big favorite 25-17 (60%)
NYJ @ SEA TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
BUF @ NE TOTAL- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
SD @ TB TOTAL- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.