Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 7.
13 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-5, -6.8u flat at -110. Season through week 7: 45-50, -12.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 SEA @  SFThu, Oct 18 20:20 ET | SF +7.5 | 37.5 | SEA 6 at SF 13SF +7.5 closed · SEA covered |
 ARI @  MINSun, Oct 21 13:00 ET | MIN +7 | 38.5 | ARI 14 at MIN 21MIN +7 closed · push |
 BAL @  HOUSun, Oct 21 13:00 ET | HOU +6.5 | 47 | BAL 13 at HOU 43HOU +6.5 closed · HOU covered |
 CLE @  INDSun, Oct 21 13:00 ET | IND +1 | 46.5 | CLE 13 at IND 17IND +1 closed · IND covered |
 DAL @  CARSun, Oct 21 13:00 ET | CAR -2.5 | 45 | DAL 19 at CAR 14CAR -2.5 closed · DAL covered |
 GB @  STLSun, Oct 21 13:00 ET | STL -4 | 45 | GB 30 at STL 20STL -4 closed · GB covered |
 JAX @  OAKSun, Oct 21 16:25 ET | OAK +6 | 44.5 | JAX 23 at OAK 26OAK +6 closed · JAX covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Oct 21 13:00 ET | TB -1 | 49.5 | NO 35 at TB 28TB -1 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  NESun, Oct 21 16:25 ET | NE +11 | 47.5 | NYJ 26 at NE 29NE +11 closed · NYJ covered |
 PIT @  CINSun, Oct 21 20:20 ET | CIN -1 | 46.5 | PIT 24 at CIN 17CIN -1 closed · PIT covered |
 TEN @  BUFSun, Oct 21 13:00 ET | BUF +4 | 47 | TEN 35 at BUF 34BUF +4 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Oct 21 13:00 ET | NYG +6.5 | 51.5 | WAS 23 at NYG 27NYG +6.5 closed · WAS covered |
 DET @  CHIMon, Oct 22 20:30 ET | CHI +6.5 | 45.5 | DET 7 at CHI 13CHI +6.5 closed · DET covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ HOU - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 18-8 (69%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, in a dome 24-12 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, in a dome 17-9 (65%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
WAS @ NYG - model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 26-8 (76%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 23-8 (74%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, better QB, better coach, high total (48+) 24-9 (73%)
- and 35 more angles on this side
TEN @ BUF - model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 76-50 (60%)
SEA @ SF TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big favorite 25-17 (60%)
- under when windy, division game 46-35 (57%)
ARI @ MIN TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
NO @ TB TOTAL- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
WAS @ NYG TOTAL- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.