Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 14.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-4, +5.6u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 101-90, -3.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN @  OAKThu, Dec 6 20:20 ET | OAK -10 | 47 | DEN 26 at OAK 13OAK -10 closed · DEN covered |
 ARI @  SEASun, Dec 9 16:25 ET | SEA +10.5 | 36 | ARI 0 at SEA 58SEA +10.5 closed · SEA covered |
 ATL @  CARSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 46.5 | ATL 20 at CAR 30CAR -3 closed · CAR covered |
 BAL @  WASSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | WAS +1 | 47.5 | BAL 28 at WAS 31WAS +1 closed · WAS covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | MIN -1 | 40.5 | CHI 14 at MIN 21MIN -1 closed · MIN covered |
 DAL @  CINSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | CIN +3.5 | 46 | DAL 20 at CIN 19CIN +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  GBSun, Dec 9 20:20 ET | GB +6 | 49.5 | DET 20 at GB 27GB +6 closed · GB covered |
 KC @  CLESun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | CLE +7 | 38 | KC 7 at CLE 30CLE +7 closed · CLE covered |
 MIA @  SFSun, Dec 9 16:05 ET | SF +10.5 | 38.5 | MIA 13 at SF 27SF +10.5 closed · SF covered |
 NO @  NYGSun, Dec 9 16:25 ET | NYG +4 | 52.5 | NO 27 at NYG 52NYG +4 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  JAXSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | JAX -3 | 39.5 | NYJ 17 at JAX 10JAX -3 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  TBSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | TB +8 | 47.5 | PHI 23 at TB 21TB +8 closed · PHI covered |
 SD @  PITSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | PIT +7 | 37.5 | SD 34 at PIT 24PIT +7 closed · SD covered |
 STL @  BUFSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | BUF +3.5 | 42 | STL 15 at BUF 12BUF +3.5 closed · STL covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Dec 9 13:00 ET | IND +3.5 | 47 | TEN 23 at IND 27IND +3.5 closed · IND covered |
 HOU @  NEMon, Dec 10 20:30 ET | NE +5.5 | 50.5 | HOU 14 at NE 42NE +5.5 closed · NE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LAR @ BUF - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, better QB 36-23 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, won last week, blew someone out last week 63-41 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week 63-41 (61%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
CHI @ MIN - model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 43-20 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 25-13 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 54-29 (65%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
NYJ @ JAC - model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better QB, better coach 31-16 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 32-18 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, at home, better coach 21-12 (64%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
LAC @ PIT - model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), worse QB, better coach 31-20 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 33-22 (60%)
DEN @ OAK TOTAL- over when home team a big underdog 77-54 (59%)
BAL @ WAS TOTAL- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 37-16 (70%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 28-17 (62%)
- over when home team off Monday night 81-61 (57%)
CHI @ MIN TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
ARI @ SEA TOTAL- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
HOU @ NE TOTAL- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
DET @ GB TOTAL- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
MIA @ SF TOTAL- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-45 (56%)
NYJ @ JAX TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 100-77 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.