Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 9.
14 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-3, +7.5u flat at -110. Season through week 9: 60-61, -14.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 KC @  SDThu, Nov 1 20:20 ET | SD +7.5 | 41 | KC 13 at SD 31SD +7.5 closed · SD covered |
 ARI @  GBSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | GB +10.5 | 43 | ARI 17 at GB 31GB +10.5 closed · GB covered |
 BAL @  CLESun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | CLE -3.5 | 44 | BAL 25 at CLE 15CLE -3.5 closed · BAL covered |
 BUF @  HOUSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | HOU +11 | 47.5 | BUF 9 at HOU 21HOU +11 closed · HOU covered |
 CAR @  WASSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | WAS +3 | 48 | CAR 21 at WAS 13WAS +3 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  TENSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | TEN -4.5 | 44 | CHI 51 at TEN 20TEN -4.5 closed · CHI covered |
 DAL @  ATLSun, Nov 4 20:20 ET | ATL +4 | 47 | DAL 13 at ATL 19ATL +4 closed · ATL covered |
 DEN @  CINSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | CIN -5 | 47.5 | DEN 31 at CIN 23CIN -5 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  JAXSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | JAX -6 | 44 | DET 31 at JAX 14JAX -6 closed · DET covered |
 MIA @  INDSun, Nov 4 13:00 ET | IND -2.5 | 44 | MIA 20 at IND 23IND -2.5 closed · IND covered |
 MIN @  SEASun, Nov 4 16:05 ET | SEA +4.5 | 38 | MIN 20 at SEA 30SEA +4.5 closed · SEA covered |
 PIT @  NYGSun, Nov 4 16:25 ET | NYG +3.5 | 48 | PIT 24 at NYG 20NYG +3.5 closed · PIT covered |
 TB @  OAKSun, Nov 4 16:05 ET | OAK +1 | 47 | TB 42 at OAK 32OAK +1 closed · TB covered |
 PHI @  NOMon, Nov 5 20:30 ET | NO +2.5 | 52 | PHI 13 at NO 28NO +2.5 closed · NO covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
DAL @ ATL WIN DAL +4 2.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, elite QB, on turf 14-7 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 24-12 (67%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 29-16 (64%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
BUF @ HOU LOSS HOU -11 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, in a dome 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better coach, in a dome 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, in a dome 43-25 (63%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
KC @ 
LAC WIN LAC -7.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), better QB, low total (41 or under) 14-8 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, better record, elite QB, division game 38-24 (61%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), at home, low total (41 or under) 18-12 (60%)
MIA @ IND WIN MIA -2.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 26-10 (72%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 28-11 (72%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, in a dome 43-25 (63%)
- and 13 more angles on this side
PIT @ NYG LOSS NYG -3.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on turf, high total (48+) 16-7 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, elite QB, high total (48+) 22-12 (65%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on turf, high total (48+) 19-11 (63%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
MIN @ SEA LOSS SEA -4.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 25-12 (68%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, lost last week, worse record 25-12 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, worse record, low total (41 or under) 20-11 (64%)
- and 26 more angles on this side
CHI @ TEN WIN TEN +4.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 33-15 (69%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 43-27 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, at home, lost last week 50-32 (61%)
MIN @ SEA TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
PHI @ NO TOTALWIN Under 52.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
CAR @ WAS TOTALWIN Under 48.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
TB @ OAK TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
ARI @ GB TOTALWIN Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 22-8 (73%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.