Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 16.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-5, +2.5u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 116-100, +3.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ATL @  DETSat, Dec 22 20:30 ET | DET -3.5 | 50 | ATL 31 at DET 18DET -3.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  MIASun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | MIA +5 | 43.5 | BUF 10 at MIA 24MIA +5 closed · MIA covered |
 CHI @  ARISun, Dec 23 16:25 ET | ARI -7 | 35.5 | CHI 28 at ARI 13ARI -7 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  PITSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | PIT +3.5 | 40 | CIN 13 at PIT 10PIT +3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  DENSun, Dec 23 16:05 ET | DEN +11 | 43.5 | CLE 12 at DEN 34DEN +11 closed · DEN covered |
 IND @  KCSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | KC -4.5 | 41.5 | IND 20 at KC 13KC -4.5 closed · IND covered |
 MIN @  HOUSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | HOU +7.5 | 43 | MIN 23 at HOU 6HOU +7.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  JAXSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | JAX -14 | 51.5 | NE 23 at JAX 16JAX -14 closed · JAX covered |
 NO @  DALSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | DAL +1 | 55 | NO 34 at DAL 31DAL +1 closed · NO covered |
 NYG @  BALSun, Dec 23 16:25 ET | BAL -1 | 48 | NYG 14 at BAL 33BAL -1 closed · BAL covered |
 OAK @  CARSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | CAR +9.5 | 47.5 | OAK 6 at CAR 17CAR +9.5 closed · CAR covered |
 SD @  NYJSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | NYJ +3 | 37 | SD 27 at NYJ 17NYJ +3 closed · SD covered |
 SF @  SEASun, Dec 23 20:20 ET | SEA +2.5 | 40 | SF 13 at SEA 42SEA +2.5 closed · SEA covered |
 STL @  TBSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | TB +3 | 43.5 | STL 28 at TB 13TB +3 closed · STL covered |
 TEN @  GBSun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | GB +10.5 | 44 | TEN 7 at GB 55GB +10.5 closed · GB covered |
 WAS @  PHISun, Dec 23 13:00 ET | PHI -3.5 | 46 | WAS 27 at PHI 20PHI -3.5 closed · WAS covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
LV @ CAR LOSS CAR -9.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better record 43-27 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, blew someone out last week, better record 43-27 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, better record 42-27 (61%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
IND @ KC WIN KC +4.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 33-15 (69%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 43-27 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, at home, lost last week 50-32 (61%)
SF @ SEA WIN SF +2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, won last week, better record 22-13 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, better coach, division game 22-13 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, won last week, better record 25-15 (62%)
- and 10 more angles on this side
CHI @ ARI TOTALWIN Over 35.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, home team a big underdog 23-14 (62%)
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
- over when home team a big underdog 77-54 (59%)
SD @ NYJ TOTALWIN Over 37.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 37-16 (70%)
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 18-9 (67%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 28-17 (62%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
CLE @ DEN TOTALLOSS Under 43.5 1.0u
- under when windy, home team a big favorite 25-17 (60%)
SF @ SEA TOTALWIN Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 100-77 (56%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
CIN @ PIT TOTALLOSS Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 60-47 (56%)
NYG @ BAL TOTALWIN Under 48.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
NO @ DAL TOTALLOSS Under 55.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
ATL @ DET TOTALWIN Under 50.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
OAK @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-45 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.