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Weekly Lines · 2012

Week 13.

16 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 11-5, +6.3u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 93-86, -8.6u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
NO @ ATLThu, Nov 29 20:20 ETATL +3.554.5NO 13 at ATL 23ATL +3.5 closed · ATL covered
ARI @ NYJSun, Dec 2 13:00 ETNYJ +637ARI 6 at NYJ 7NYJ +6 closed · ARI covered
CAR @ KCSun, Dec 2 13:00 ETKC -541CAR 21 at KC 27KC -5 closed · KC covered
CIN @ SDSun, Dec 2 16:25 ETSD +145CIN 20 at SD 13SD +1 closed · CIN covered
CLE @ OAKSun, Dec 2 16:25 ETOAK -2.539.5CLE 20 at OAK 17OAK -2.5 closed · CLE covered
HOU @ TENSun, Dec 2 13:00 ETTEN -747.5HOU 24 at TEN 10TEN -7 closed · HOU covered
IND @ DETSun, Dec 2 13:00 ETDET +751.5IND 35 at DET 33DET +7 closed · IND covered
JAX @ BUFSun, Dec 2 13:00 ETBUF +641JAX 18 at BUF 34BUF +6 closed · BUF covered
MIN @ GBSun, Dec 2 13:00 ETGB +747MIN 14 at GB 23GB +7 closed · GB covered
NE @ MIASun, Dec 2 13:00 ETMIA -751NE 23 at MIA 16MIA -7 closed · push
PHI @ DALSun, Dec 2 20:20 ETDAL +10.544PHI 33 at DAL 38DAL +10.5 closed · PHI covered
PIT @ BALSun, Dec 2 16:25 ETBAL +736.5PIT 23 at BAL 20BAL +7 closed · PIT covered
SEA @ CHISun, Dec 2 13:00 ETCHI +336.5SEA 23 at CHI 17CHI +3 closed · SEA covered
SF @ STLSun, Dec 2 13:00 ETSTL -740.5SF 13 at STL 16STL -7 closed · STL covered
TB @ DENSun, Dec 2 16:05 ETDEN +9.550TB 23 at DEN 31DEN +9.5 closed · TB covered
NYG @ WASMon, Dec 3 20:30 ETWAS -2.550NYG 16 at WAS 17WAS -2.5 closed · WAS covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

CAR @ KC
WIN CAR -5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 19-10 (66%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 39-23 (63%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 22-13 (63%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
CIN @ LAC
LOSS LAC -1 2.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, worse record, elite QB 18-9 (67%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, elite QB 19-10 (66%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, better QB 22-14 (61%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
CLE @ LV
LOSS LV +2.5 2.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, underdog, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 19-10 (66%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, low total (41 or under) 18-11 (62%)
  • model likes them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, low total (41 or under) 13-8 (62%)
  • and 5 more angles on this side
MIN @ GB
WIN MIN +7 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), on the road, division game 17-9 (65%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), worse record, division game 33-18 (65%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), worse record, division game 18-10 (64%)
  • and 17 more angles on this side
NYG @ WAS
WIN NYG -2.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 16-8 (67%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week 17-9 (65%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 40-22 (64%)
  • and 22 more angles on this side
TB @ DEN
WIN TB +9.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, better coach, high total (48+) 31-20 (61%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, high total (48+) 12-8 (60%)
PIT @ BAL TOTAL
WIN Over 36.5 1.0u
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
JAX @ BUF TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
ARI @ NYJ TOTAL
LOSS Over 37.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
NYG @ WAS TOTAL
WIN Under 50.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
IND @ DET TOTAL
LOSS Under 51.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
NO @ ATL TOTAL
WIN Under 54.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
CIN @ SD TOTAL
LOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
SEA @ CHI TOTAL
WIN Over 36.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
PHI @ DAL TOTAL
WIN Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 22-8 (73%)
CAR @ KC TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, road team off Monday night 22-8 (73%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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