Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 11.
14 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-9, -2.3u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 74-73, -12.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIA @  BUFThu, Nov 15 20:20 ET | BUF +1 | 46 | MIA 14 at BUF 19BUF +1 closed · BUF covered |
 ARI @  ATLSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | ATL +9.5 | 43 | ARI 19 at ATL 23ATL +9.5 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  PITSun, Nov 18 20:20 ET | PIT -3 | 41 | BAL 13 at PIT 10PIT -3 closed · push |
 CIN @  KCSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | KC -3 | 41 | CIN 28 at KC 6KC -3 closed · CIN covered |
 CLE @  DALSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | DAL +7 | 43.5 | CLE 20 at DAL 23DAL +7 closed · CLE covered |
 GB @  DETSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | DET -3 | 53.5 | GB 24 at DET 20DET -3 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  NESun, Nov 18 16:25 ET | NE +10 | 54.5 | IND 24 at NE 59NE +10 closed · NE covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | HOU +15 | 40.5 | JAX 37 at HOU 43HOU +15 closed · JAX covered |
 NO @  OAKSun, Nov 18 16:05 ET | OAK -6 | 56.5 | NO 38 at OAK 17OAK -6 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  STLSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | STL +3.5 | 38 | NYJ 27 at STL 13STL +3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  WASSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | WAS +3.5 | 46 | PHI 6 at WAS 31WAS +3.5 closed · WAS covered |
 SD @  DENSun, Nov 18 16:25 ET | DEN +7.5 | 47.5 | SD 23 at DEN 30DEN +7.5 closed · SD covered |
 TB @  CARSun, Nov 18 13:00 ET | CAR -1 | 46 | TB 27 at CAR 21CAR -1 closed · TB covered |
 CHI @  SFMon, Nov 19 20:30 ET | SF +3.5 | 34 | CHI 7 at SF 32SF +3.5 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ ATL LOSS ARI +9.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 20-13 (61%)
TB @ CAR WIN CAR +1 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 18-8 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 33-15 (69%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 54-29 (65%)
- and 7 more angles on this side
CHI @ SF WIN CHI +3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 25-16 (61%)
CIN @ KC LOSS CIN -3 3.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 23-8 (74%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 45-17 (73%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better record 33-14 (70%)
- and 41 more angles on this side
NO @ 
LV LOSS LV +6 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, underdog, got blown out last week, elite QB 12-8 (60%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, elite QB, high total (48+) 12-8 (60%)
MIA @ BUF LOSS MIA +1 2.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, better coach 15-8 (65%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, on the road, lost last week, division game 41-24 (63%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, lost last week, division game 54-32 (63%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
IND @ NE WIN NE -10 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 26-8 (76%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 23-8 (74%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, better QB, better coach, high total (48+) 24-9 (73%)
- and 43 more angles on this side
NYJ @ 
LAR LOSS NYJ +3.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, in a dome 17-9 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 13-7 (65%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better QB, in a dome 17-10 (63%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
PHI @ WAS WIN PHI +3.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 17-6 (74%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 15-6 (71%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, lost last week 23-13 (64%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
BAL @ PIT TOTALLOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 37-16 (70%)
- over when home team off Monday night 81-61 (57%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 100-77 (56%)
JAX @ HOU TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
NYJ @ STL TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
MIA @ BUF TOTALLOSS Over 46.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 36-26 (58%)
GB @ DET TOTALWIN Under 53.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
IND @ NE TOTALLOSS Under 54.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
ARI @ ATL TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-45 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.