Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 17.
16 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-4, -1.5u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 118-104, +2.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  SFSun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | SF +16 | 39 | ARI 13 at SF 27SF +16 closed · ARI covered |
 BAL @  CINSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | CIN +5.5 | 43 | BAL 17 at CIN 23CIN +5.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CAR @  NOSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | NO +4 | 53.5 | CAR 44 at NO 38NO +4 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  DETSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | DET -3 | 46 | CHI 26 at DET 24DET -3 closed · DET covered |
 CLE @  PITSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | PIT +10 | 36.5 | CLE 10 at PIT 24PIT +10 closed · PIT covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Dec 30 20:20 ET | WAS +3 | 49 | DAL 18 at WAS 28WAS +3 closed · WAS covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | MIN -3 | 45.5 | GB 34 at MIN 37MIN -3 closed · MIN covered |
 HOU @  INDSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | IND -6.5 | 47 | HOU 16 at IND 28IND -6.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | TEN +6 | 42 | JAX 20 at TEN 38TEN +6 closed · TEN covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | DEN +17 | 41 | KC 3 at DEN 38DEN +17 closed · DEN covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | NE +11.5 | 48 | MIA 0 at NE 28NE +11.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | BUF +3.5 | 40.5 | NYJ 9 at BUF 28BUF +3.5 closed · BUF covered |
 OAK @  SDSun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | SD +9.5 | 41 | OAK 21 at SD 24SD +9.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PHI @  NYGSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | NYG +6.5 | 44 | PHI 7 at NYG 42NYG +6.5 closed · NYG covered |
 STL @  SEASun, Dec 30 16:25 ET | SEA +11 | 41.5 | STL 13 at SEA 20SEA +11 closed · STL covered |
 TB @  ATLSun, Dec 30 13:00 ET | ATL +3 | 46 | TB 22 at ATL 17ATL +3 closed · TB covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
KC @ DEN - model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, division game 19-10 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, division game 30-17 (64%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, blew someone out last week, division game 50-29 (63%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
HOU @ IND - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 16-4 (80%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 17-5 (77%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 43-20 (68%)
- and 47 more angles on this side
MIA @ NE TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 43-27 (61%)
- under when windy, home team a big favorite 25-17 (60%)
- under when windy, division game 46-35 (57%)
OAK @ SD TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 43-27 (61%)
CLE @ PIT TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 60-47 (56%)
STL @ SEA TOTAL- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-45 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.