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Weekly Lines · 2012

Week 2.

16 games and 18 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 11-7, +5.1u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 18-14, +4.3u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
CHI @ GBThu, Sep 13 20:20 ETGB +550.5CHI 10 at GB 23GB +5 closed · GB covered
ARI @ NESun, Sep 16 13:00 ETNE +1347ARI 20 at NE 18NE +13 closed · ARI covered
BAL @ PHISun, Sep 16 13:00 ETPHI +346.5BAL 23 at PHI 24PHI +3 closed · BAL covered
CLE @ CINSun, Sep 16 13:00 ETCIN +739.5CLE 27 at CIN 34CIN +7 closed · push
DAL @ SEASun, Sep 16 16:05 ETSEA -343DAL 7 at SEA 27SEA -3 closed · SEA covered
DET @ SFSun, Sep 16 20:20 ETSF +746DET 19 at SF 27SF +7 closed · SF covered
HOU @ JAXSun, Sep 16 13:00 ETJAX -6.540HOU 27 at JAX 7JAX -6.5 closed · HOU covered
KC @ BUFSun, Sep 16 13:00 ETBUF +345KC 17 at BUF 35BUF +3 closed · BUF covered
MIN @ INDSun, Sep 16 13:00 ETIND -345.5MIN 20 at IND 23IND -3 closed · IND covered
NO @ CARSun, Sep 16 13:00 ETCAR -353NO 27 at CAR 35CAR -3 closed · CAR covered
NYJ @ PITSun, Sep 16 16:25 ETPIT +4.543NYJ 10 at PIT 27PIT +4.5 closed · PIT covered
OAK @ MIASun, Sep 16 13:00 ETMIA -141OAK 13 at MIA 35MIA -1 closed · MIA covered
TB @ NYGSun, Sep 16 13:00 ETNYG +943.5TB 34 at NYG 41NYG +9 closed · TB covered
TEN @ SDSun, Sep 16 16:25 ETSD +6.543.5TEN 10 at SD 38SD +6.5 closed · SD covered
WAS @ STLSun, Sep 16 16:05 ETSTL -3.542.5WAS 28 at STL 31STL -3.5 closed · STL covered
DEN @ ATLMon, Sep 17 20:30 ETATL +350DEN 21 at ATL 27ATL +3 closed · ATL covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

KC @ BUF
LOSS BUF -3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, on turf 23-14 (62%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, better QB, on turf 16-10 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better QB, on turf 24-15 (62%)
DEN @ ATL
WIN DEN +3 3.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, worse QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 16-4 (80%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, in a dome, high total (48+) 17-5 (77%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, in a dome, high total (48+) 16-6 (73%)
  • and 16 more angles on this side
CHI @ GB
LOSS GB -5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, division game, high total (48+) 14-8 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 45-26 (63%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, at home, better coach, division game 80-47 (63%)
  • and 12 more angles on this side
HOU @ JAC
LOSS HOU -6.5 3.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 23-8 (74%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 45-17 (73%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 33-14 (70%)
  • and 75 more angles on this side
MIN @ IND
WIN IND +3 1.0u
  • model likes them by 3.0+, worse record, better QB, better coach 25-14 (64%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, better QB 16-10 (62%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, better coach 44-28 (61%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
ARI @ NE
WIN NE -13 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, on turf 17-8 (68%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, better coach 35-19 (65%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, better QB 28-16 (64%)
  • and 21 more angles on this side
NO @ CAR
WIN NO -3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, division game, high total (48+) 14-8 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, division game 38-23 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, division game 75-46 (62%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
TB @ NYG
WIN NYG -9 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 36-17 (68%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 54-30 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 72-43 (63%)
  • and 16 more angles on this side
WAS @ LAR
WIN WAS -3.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, won last week, in a dome 44-28 (61%)
TEN @ SD TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 18-9 (67%)
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 28-17 (62%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
CLE @ CIN TOTAL
WIN Over 39.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 28-17 (62%)
  • over when on turf, home team off Monday night 36-27 (57%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 81-61 (57%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
DEN @ ATL TOTAL
WIN Under 50.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
  • under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
NO @ CAR TOTAL
LOSS Under 53.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
  • under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
CHI @ GB TOTAL
WIN Under 50.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
HOU @ JAX TOTAL
LOSS Over 40.0 1.0u
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
OAK @ MIA TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
ARI @ NE TOTAL
LOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-45 (56%)
DAL @ SEA TOTAL
LOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

← Week 1 The 2012 record Week 3 →

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