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Weekly Lines · 2012

Week 3.

16 games and 19 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 7-12, -9.6u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 25-26, -5.3u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
NYG @ CARThu, Sep 20 20:20 ETCAR +2.549NYG 36 at CAR 7CAR +2.5 closed · NYG covered
ATL @ SDSun, Sep 23 16:05 ETSD +347ATL 27 at SD 3SD +3 closed · ATL covered
BUF @ CLESun, Sep 23 13:00 ETCLE -2.545BUF 24 at CLE 14CLE -2.5 closed · BUF covered
CIN @ WASSun, Sep 23 13:00 ETWAS +349.5CIN 38 at WAS 31WAS +3 closed · CIN covered
DET @ TENSun, Sep 23 13:00 ETTEN -3.547DET 41 at TEN 44TEN -3.5 closed · TEN covered
HOU @ DENSun, Sep 23 16:25 ETDEN -143.5HOU 31 at DEN 25DEN -1 closed · HOU covered
JAX @ INDSun, Sep 23 13:00 ETIND +341.5JAX 22 at IND 17IND +3 closed · JAX covered
KC @ NOSun, Sep 23 13:00 ETNO +951.5KC 27 at NO 24NO +9 closed · KC covered
NE @ BALSun, Sep 23 20:20 ETBAL +2.548.5NE 30 at BAL 31BAL +2.5 closed · NE covered
NYJ @ MIASun, Sep 23 13:00 ETMIA -2.540.5NYJ 23 at MIA 20MIA -2.5 closed · NYJ covered
PHI @ ARISun, Sep 23 16:05 ETARI -342.5PHI 6 at ARI 27ARI -3 closed · ARI covered
PIT @ OAKSun, Sep 23 16:25 ETOAK -3.545.5PIT 31 at OAK 34OAK -3.5 closed · OAK covered
SF @ MINSun, Sep 23 13:00 ETMIN -6.542.5SF 13 at MIN 24MIN -6.5 closed · MIN covered
STL @ CHISun, Sep 23 13:00 ETCHI +741.5STL 6 at CHI 23CHI +7 closed · CHI covered
TB @ DALSun, Sep 23 13:00 ETDAL +745.5TB 10 at DAL 16DAL +7 closed · TB covered
GB @ SEAMon, Sep 24 20:30 ETSEA -345.5GB 12 at SEA 14SEA -3 closed · SEA covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ATL @ LAC
LOSS ATL +3 3.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 17-6 (74%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent, better coach 15-6 (71%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, less rest than the opponent 26-13 (67%)
  • and 12 more angles on this side
BUF @ CLE
LOSS BUF -2.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 44-26 (63%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better record 48-30 (62%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, won last week, blew someone out last week 79-52 (60%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
HOU @ DEN
LOSS HOU -1 3.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 45-17 (73%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 33-14 (70%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better record 33-14 (70%)
  • and 21 more angles on this side
JAC @ IND
LOSS JAC +3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, worse QB, division game 43-24 (64%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, lost last week, division game 34-20 (63%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, worse record, division game 51-34 (60%)
NYJ @ MIA
LOSS NYJ -2.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, worse QB, division game 43-24 (64%)
PHI @ ARI
WIN PHI -3 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, won last week, in a dome 44-28 (61%)
SF @ MIN
WIN SF -6.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 54-29 (65%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 40-22 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 47-27 (64%)
  • and 11 more angles on this side
DET @ TEN
LOSS TEN +3.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, at home, lost last week 50-32 (61%)
HOU @ DEN TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 37-16 (70%)
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 28-17 (62%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 81-61 (57%)
NE @ BAL TOTAL
LOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
  • under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
CIN @ WAS TOTAL
LOSS Under 49.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
  • under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
NYG @ CAR TOTAL
WIN Under 49.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
  • under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
KC @ NO TOTAL
WIN Under 51.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
  • under when high total (48+), a team looking ahead to a division game 54-41 (57%)
NYJ @ MIA TOTAL
WIN Over 40.5 1.0u
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
GB @ SEA TOTAL
LOSS Over 45.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
PHI @ ARI TOTAL
LOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
ATL @ SD TOTAL
LOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
PIT @ OAK TOTAL
WIN Over 45.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
SF @ MIN TOTAL
LOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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