Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 6.
14 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-6, +1.3u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 43-45, -5.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 PIT @  TENThu, Oct 11 20:20 ET | TEN -5.5 | 42.5 | PIT 23 at TEN 26TEN -5.5 closed · TEN covered |
 BUF @  ARISun, Oct 14 16:05 ET | ARI +5 | 44 | BUF 19 at ARI 16ARI +5 closed · BUF covered |
 CIN @  CLESun, Oct 14 13:00 ET | CLE -1 | 42 | CIN 24 at CLE 34CLE -1 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  BALSun, Oct 14 13:00 ET | BAL +3 | 45.5 | DAL 29 at BAL 31BAL +3 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  PHISun, Oct 14 13:00 ET | PHI +3.5 | 47.5 | DET 26 at PHI 23PHI +3.5 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  HOUSun, Oct 14 20:20 ET | HOU +4 | 46.5 | GB 42 at HOU 24HOU +4 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  NYJSun, Oct 14 13:00 ET | NYJ +3.5 | 43.5 | IND 9 at NYJ 35NYJ +3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 KC @  TBSun, Oct 14 13:00 ET | TB +5 | 39.5 | KC 10 at TB 38TB +5 closed · TB covered |
 MIN @  WASSun, Oct 14 16:25 ET | WAS -1.5 | 44 | MIN 26 at WAS 38WAS -1.5 closed · WAS covered |
 NE @  SEASun, Oct 14 16:05 ET | SEA -3.5 | 42.5 | NE 23 at SEA 24SEA -3.5 closed · SEA covered |
 NYG @  SFSun, Oct 14 16:25 ET | SF +7 | 46.5 | NYG 26 at SF 3SF +7 closed · NYG covered |
 OAK @  ATLSun, Oct 14 13:00 ET | ATL +10 | 49 | OAK 20 at ATL 23ATL +10 closed · OAK covered |
 STL @  MIASun, Oct 14 13:00 ET | MIA +5.5 | 38 | STL 14 at MIA 17MIA +5.5 closed · STL covered |
 DEN @  SDMon, Oct 15 20:30 ET | SD +1 | 47.5 | DEN 35 at SD 24SD +1 closed · DEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BUF @ ARI - model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 16-4 (80%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 17-5 (77%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, in a dome 27-11 (71%)
- and 45 more angles on this side
CIN @ CLE - model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, at home, lost last week 33-15 (69%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, lost last week, division game 34-20 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, lost last week, division game 69-41 (63%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
IND @ NYJ - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, worse QB 50-31 (62%)
KC @ TB - model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 16-10 (62%)
GB @ HOU TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 28-17 (62%)
- over when home team off Monday night 81-61 (57%)
IND @ NYJ TOTAL- over when early season, home team off Monday night 28-17 (62%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 36-27 (57%)
- over when home team off Monday night 81-61 (57%)
CIN @ CLE TOTAL- under when windy, division game 46-35 (57%)
- under when windy, line inside 3 38-30 (56%)
STL @ MIA TOTAL- over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
KC @ TB TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 46-27 (63%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
NYG @ SF TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-45 (56%)
PIT @ TEN TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, early season 46-27 (63%)
BUF @ ARI TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
NE @ SEA TOTAL- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.