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Weekly Lines · 2012

Week 4.

15 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 5-7, -2.9u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 30-33, -8.2u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
CLE @ BALThu, Sep 27 20:20 ETBAL +11.544CLE 16 at BAL 23BAL +11.5 closed · CLE covered
CAR @ ATLSun, Sep 30 13:00 ETATL +748CAR 28 at ATL 30ATL +7 closed · CAR covered
CIN @ JAXSun, Sep 30 16:05 ETJAX +145.5CIN 27 at JAX 10JAX +1 closed · CIN covered
MIA @ ARISun, Sep 30 16:05 ETARI +438.5MIA 21 at ARI 24ARI +4 closed · MIA covered
MIN @ DETSun, Sep 30 13:00 ETDET +3.548MIN 20 at DET 13DET +3.5 closed · MIN covered
NE @ BUFSun, Sep 30 13:00 ETBUF -3.548NE 52 at BUF 28BUF -3.5 closed · NE covered
NO @ GBSun, Sep 30 16:25 ETGB +7.554NO 27 at GB 28GB +7.5 closed · NO covered
NYG @ PHISun, Sep 30 20:20 ETPHI +1.546NYG 17 at PHI 19PHI +1.5 closed · PHI covered
OAK @ DENSun, Sep 30 16:05 ETDEN +6.547OAK 6 at DEN 37DEN +6.5 closed · DEN covered
SD @ KCSun, Sep 30 13:00 ETKC -2.543SD 37 at KC 20KC -2.5 closed · SD covered
SEA @ STLSun, Sep 30 13:00 ETSTL -239.5SEA 13 at STL 19STL -2 closed · STL covered
SF @ NYJSun, Sep 30 13:00 ETNYJ -3.540.5SF 34 at NYJ 0NYJ -3.5 closed · SF covered
TEN @ HOUSun, Sep 30 13:00 ETHOU +1344.5TEN 14 at HOU 38HOU +13 closed · HOU covered
WAS @ TBSun, Sep 30 16:25 ETTB +1.544.5WAS 24 at TB 22TB +1.5 closed · WAS covered
CHI @ DALMon, Oct 1 20:30 ETDAL +341CHI 34 at DAL 18DAL +3 closed · CHI covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

MIA @ ARI
WIN ARI -4 3.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, worse QB, in a dome 20-7 (74%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 33-16 (67%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, blew someone out last week, better record, worse QB 28-14 (67%)
  • and 11 more angles on this side
NO @ GB
WIN GB -7.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 54-30 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 97-59 (62%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 32-20 (62%)
  • and 10 more angles on this side
LAC @ KC
LOSS LAC -2.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, elite QB, division game 14-8 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, elite QB 15-9 (62%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, division game 38-23 (62%)
  • and 6 more angles on this side
SEA @ LAR
LOSS LAR +2 3.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 16-4 (80%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 17-5 (77%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 15-6 (71%)
  • and 91 more angles on this side
SF @ NYJ
LOSS SF -3.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 81-46 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 87-50 (64%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 72-43 (63%)
  • and 3 more angles on this side
CHI @ DAL TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
MIA @ ARI TOTAL
WIN Over 38.5 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
SEA @ STL TOTAL
LOSS Over 39.5 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
SF @ NYJ TOTAL
LOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 129-100 (56%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
CAR @ ATL TOTAL
LOSS Under 48.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
NE @ BUF TOTAL
LOSS Under 48.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
MIN @ DET TOTAL
WIN Under 48.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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