Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 5.
14 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-6, +1.3u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 36-39, -6.9u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  STLThu, Oct 4 20:20 ET | STL -1 | 37.5 | ARI 3 at STL 17STL -1 closed · STL covered |
 ATL @  WASSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | WAS -3 | 50.5 | ATL 24 at WAS 17WAS -3 closed · ATL covered |
 BAL @  KCSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | KC -6 | 46.5 | BAL 9 at KC 6KC -6 closed · KC covered |
 BUF @  SFSun, Oct 7 16:25 ET | SF +10 | 45.5 | BUF 3 at SF 45SF +10 closed · SF covered |
 CHI @  JAXSun, Oct 7 16:05 ET | JAX -6 | 38.5 | CHI 41 at JAX 3JAX -6 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  NYGSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | NYG +7.5 | 44 | CLE 27 at NYG 41NYG +7.5 closed · NYG covered |
 DEN @  NESun, Oct 7 16:25 ET | NE +6 | 50.5 | DEN 21 at NE 31NE +6 closed · NE covered |
 GB @  INDSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | IND -6.5 | 49.5 | GB 27 at IND 30IND -6.5 closed · IND covered |
 MIA @  CINSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | CIN +3 | 45 | MIA 17 at CIN 13CIN +3 closed · MIA covered |
 PHI @  PITSun, Oct 7 13:00 ET | PIT +4 | 44 | PHI 14 at PIT 16PIT +4 closed · PHI covered |
 SD @  NOSun, Oct 7 20:20 ET | NO +3.5 | 53 | SD 24 at NO 31NO +3.5 closed · NO covered |
 SEA @  CARSun, Oct 7 16:05 ET | CAR +1 | 42.5 | SEA 16 at CAR 12CAR +1 closed · SEA covered |
 TEN @  MINSun, Oct 7 16:15 ET | MIN +6 | 44 | TEN 7 at MIN 30MIN +6 closed · MIN covered |
 HOU @  NYJMon, Oct 8 20:30 ET | NYJ -9.5 | 40.5 | HOU 23 at NYJ 17NYJ -9.5 closed · NYJ covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
HOU @ NYJ WIN HOU -9.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 23-8 (74%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 45-17 (73%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 23-9 (72%)
- and 87 more angles on this side
ARI @ 
LAR LOSS LAR +1 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, division game, in a dome 20-10 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, worse QB, division game, in a dome 23-12 (66%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 13-7 (65%)
- and 19 more angles on this side
CLE @ NYG WIN NYG -7.5 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, elite QB, better coach 14-7 (67%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 14-7 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB 16-9 (64%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
PHI @ PIT WIN PIT -4 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 54-30 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 97-59 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach 105-67 (61%)
- and 5 more angles on this side
HOU @ NYJ TOTALLOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when home team a big underdog, early season 21-8 (72%)
- over when on turf, home team a big underdog 30-16 (65%)
- over when home team a big underdog 77-54 (59%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
ARI @ STL TOTALLOSS Over 37.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
ATL @ WAS TOTALWIN Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
- under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
GB @ IND TOTALLOSS Under 49.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), early season 26-18 (59%)
CHI @ JAX TOTALWIN Over 38.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 152-122 (56%)
BUF @ SF TOTALWIN Over 45.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 57-45 (56%)
SEA @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 66-47 (58%)
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
TEN @ MIN TOTALLOSS Over 44.0 1.0u
- over when a new starting QB, early season 46-27 (63%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.