Weekly Lines · 2012
Week 15.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2012. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-5, +4.4u flat at -110. Season through week 15: 109-95, +1.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CIN @  PHIThu, Dec 13 20:20 ET | PHI -4.5 | 45 | CIN 34 at PHI 13PHI -4.5 closed · CIN covered |
 CAR @  SDSun, Dec 16 16:05 ET | SD +3 | 45 | CAR 31 at SD 7SD +3 closed · CAR covered |
 DEN @  BALSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | BAL -3 | 48 | DEN 34 at BAL 17BAL -3 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  ARISun, Dec 16 16:05 ET | ARI -5.5 | 43.5 | DET 10 at ARI 38ARI -5.5 closed · ARI covered |
 GB @  CHISun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | CHI -3 | 43 | GB 21 at CHI 13CHI -3 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | HOU +10.5 | 47.5 | IND 17 at HOU 29HOU +10.5 closed · HOU covered |
 JAX @  MIASun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | MIA +7.5 | 38.5 | JAX 3 at MIA 24MIA +7.5 closed · MIA covered |
 KC @  OAKSun, Dec 16 16:25 ET | OAK +4.5 | 44 | KC 0 at OAK 15OAK +4.5 closed · OAK covered |
 MIN @  STLSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | STL +1 | 39 | MIN 36 at STL 22STL +1 closed · MIN covered |
 NYG @  ATLSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | ATL +1 | 50 | NYG 0 at ATL 34ATL +1 closed · ATL covered |
 PIT @  DALSun, Dec 16 16:25 ET | DAL -1 | 45.5 | PIT 24 at DAL 27DAL -1 closed · DAL covered |
 SEA @  BUFSun, Dec 16 16:05 ET | BUF -4.5 | 44 | SEA 50 at BUF 17BUF -4.5 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  NESun, Dec 16 20:20 ET | NE +4 | 47 | SF 41 at NE 34NE +4 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | NO +3.5 | 54.5 | TB 0 at NO 41NO +3.5 closed · NO covered |
 WAS @  CLESun, Dec 16 13:00 ET | CLE +4 | 40.5 | WAS 38 at CLE 21CLE +4 closed · WAS covered |
 NYJ @  TENMon, Dec 17 20:30 ET | TEN +1 | 40 | NYJ 10 at TEN 14TEN +1 closed · TEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
SEA @ BUF WIN BUF +4.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, at home, lost last week 50-32 (61%)
WAS @ CLE WIN CLE -4 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 22-13 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 22-13 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 20-12 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
DEN @ BAL WIN DEN -3 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, on turf, high total (48+) 16-7 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, high total (48+) 15-7 (68%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, on the road, more rest than the opponent 19-9 (68%)
- and 17 more angles on this side
GB @ CHI LOSS GB -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, division game 62-38 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, division game 75-46 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, elite QB, better coach, division game 37-23 (62%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
CAR @ 
LAC LOSS LAC -3 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, better QB, elite QB 64-40 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, elite QB, better coach 36-23 (61%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, won last week, elite QB 75-49 (60%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
MIN @ 
LAR WIN LAR -1 3.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 38-16 (70%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 31-14 (69%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 25-13 (66%)
- and 20 more angles on this side
JAC @ MIA WIN MIA -7.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), at home, low total (41 or under) 18-12 (60%)
NYJ @ TEN LOSS TEN -1 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 54-28 (66%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, low total (41 or under) 47-26 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, lost last week, better coach 54-30 (64%)
- and 22 more angles on this side
SF @ NE TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 18-9 (67%)
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 28-17 (62%)
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 36-27 (57%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
IND @ HOU TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 28-17 (62%)
- over when home team off Monday night 81-61 (57%)
MIN @ STL TOTALWIN Over 39.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 58-36 (62%)
NYG @ ATL TOTALWIN Under 50.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 35-24 (59%)
CAR @ SD TOTALLOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-47 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.