Weekly Lines · 2013
Week 1.
16 games and 14 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-7, +1.2u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 7-7, +1.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  DENThu, Sep 5 20:30 ET | DEN +7.5 | 48.5 | BAL 27 at DEN 49DEN +7.5 closed · DEN covered |
 ARI @  STLSun, Sep 8 16:25 ET | STL +3.5 | 42.5 | ARI 24 at STL 27STL +3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  NOSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | NO +3.5 | 54.5 | ATL 17 at NO 23NO +3.5 closed · NO covered |
 CIN @  CHISun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | CHI +3 | 41.5 | CIN 21 at CHI 24CHI +3 closed · push |
 GB @  SFSun, Sep 8 16:25 ET | SF +5 | 47 | GB 28 at SF 34SF +5 closed · SF covered |
 KC @  JAXSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | JAX -3.5 | 42.5 | KC 28 at JAX 2JAX -3.5 closed · KC covered |
 MIA @  CLESun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | CLE +2.5 | 40.5 | MIA 23 at CLE 10CLE +2.5 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | DET +4 | 46 | MIN 24 at DET 34DET +4 closed · DET covered |
 NE @  BUFSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | BUF -10 | 50.5 | NE 23 at BUF 21BUF -10 closed · BUF covered |
 NYG @  DALSun, Sep 8 20:30 ET | DAL +3.5 | 49.5 | NYG 31 at DAL 36DAL +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 OAK @  INDSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | IND +11 | 45 | OAK 17 at IND 21IND +11 closed · OAK covered |
 SEA @  CARSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 44.5 | SEA 12 at CAR 7CAR -3 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  NYJSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | NYJ -4 | 40 | TB 17 at NYJ 18NYJ -4 closed · NYJ covered |
 TEN @  PITSun, Sep 8 13:00 ET | PIT +6 | 42 | TEN 16 at PIT 9PIT +6 closed · TEN covered |
 HOU @  SDMon, Sep 9 22:15 ET | SD -5 | 44 | HOU 31 at SD 28SD -5 closed · SD covered |
 PHI @  WASMon, Sep 9 19:00 ET | WAS +4 | 51 | PHI 33 at WAS 27WAS +4 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ATL @ NO WIN ATL +3.5 3.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, in a dome, high total (48+) 24-10 (71%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 27-12 (69%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, better coach, division game, in a dome 50-23 (68%)
- and 22 more angles on this side
MIA @ CLE WIN CLE -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 76-46 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, better coach, low total (41 or under) 104-65 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 129-81 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
NYG @ DAL LOSS DAL -3.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, division game, in a dome, high total (48+) 21-11 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, favorite, division game, in a dome 65-40 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, in a dome, high total (48+) 51-32 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
LV @ IND WIN IND -11 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 38-19 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, at home, worse QB, better coach 43-23 (65%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 32-18 (64%)
- and 25 more angles on this side
TB @ NYJ WIN TB -4 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 92-54 (63%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, worse QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 27-16 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 67-40 (63%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
NE @ BUF TOTALLOSS Over 50.5 1.0u
- over when home team a big underdog, early season 21-10 (68%)
- over when on turf, home team a big underdog 31-17 (65%)
- over when home team a big underdog 80-63 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TB @ NYJ TOTALLOSS Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 140-107 (57%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
MIN @ DET TOTALWIN Over 46.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
ATL @ NO TOTALLOSS Over 54.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
MIA @ CLE TOTALLOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)
OAK @ IND TOTALLOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-52 (56%)
BAL @ DEN TOTALWIN Over 48.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-52 (56%)
SEA @ CAR TOTALLOSS Over 44.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 76-59 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
GB @ SF TOTALWIN Over 47.0 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.