Weekly Lines · 2013
Week 12.
14 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 2-8, -9.0u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 96-70, +25.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NO @  ATLThu, Nov 21 20:25 ET | ATL -7.5 | 52.5 | NO 17 at ATL 13ATL -7.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  MIASun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | MIA -4.5 | 40 | CAR 20 at MIA 16MIA -4.5 closed · MIA covered |
 CHI @  STLSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | STL +1 | 46 | CHI 21 at STL 42STL +1 closed · STL covered |
 DAL @  NYGSun, Nov 24 16:25 ET | NYG +1 | 44.5 | DAL 24 at NYG 21NYG +1 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  NESun, Nov 24 20:30 ET | NE +1 | 54 | DEN 31 at NE 34NE +1 closed · NE covered |
 IND @  ARISun, Nov 24 16:05 ET | ARI +3.5 | 44.5 | IND 11 at ARI 40ARI +3.5 closed · ARI covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | HOU +10.5 | 44 | JAX 13 at HOU 6HOU +10.5 closed · JAX covered |
 MIN @  GBSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | GB +6 | 44.5 | MIN 26 at GB 26GB +6 closed · MIN covered |
 NYJ @  BALSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | BAL +4 | 38 | NYJ 3 at BAL 19BAL +4 closed · BAL covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | CLE +2.5 | 40 | PIT 27 at CLE 11CLE +2.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SD @  KCSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | KC +3.5 | 43 | SD 41 at KC 38KC +3.5 closed · SD covered |
 TB @  DETSun, Nov 24 13:00 ET | DET +7 | 48.5 | TB 24 at DET 21DET +7 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  OAKSun, Nov 24 16:05 ET | OAK -2.5 | 42 | TEN 23 at OAK 19OAK -2.5 closed · TEN covered |
 SF @  WASMon, Nov 25 20:30 ET | WAS -5.5 | 45.5 | SF 27 at WAS 6WAS -5.5 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ MIA - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, won last week 39-26 (60%)
TB @ DET - model likes them by 1.0+, at home, in a dome, high total (48+) 26-10 (72%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, in a dome, high total (48+) 20-8 (71%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, lost last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 19-8 (70%)
- and 20 more angles on this side
LAC @ KC - model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, division game 55-36 (60%)
SF @ WAS - model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, lost last week, better coach 84-53 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach 102-65 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 47-30 (61%)
TEN @ 
LV - model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse QB, better coach 35-20 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, lost last week, better coach 84-53 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach 102-65 (61%)
NO @ ATL TOTAL- over when on turf, home team a big underdog 31-17 (65%)
- over when home team a big underdog 80-63 (56%)
DAL @ NYG TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 39-29 (57%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
TB @ DET TOTAL- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
SF @ WAS TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 16-13 (55%)
CHI @ STL TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 108-79 (58%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.