Weekly Lines · 2013
Week 2.
16 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-6, -0.6u flat at -110. Season through week 2: 13-13, +0.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYJ @  NEThu, Sep 12 20:25 ET | NE +10.5 | 43 | NYJ 10 at NE 13NE +10.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 CAR @  BUFSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | BUF -3.5 | 43.5 | CAR 23 at BUF 24BUF -3.5 closed · BUF covered |
 CLE @  BALSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | BAL +5.5 | 43.5 | CLE 6 at BAL 14BAL +5.5 closed · BAL covered |
 DAL @  KCSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | KC +3 | 45 | DAL 16 at KC 17KC +3 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  NYGSun, Sep 15 16:25 ET | NYG -3.5 | 52.5 | DEN 41 at NYG 23NYG -3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 DET @  ARISun, Sep 15 16:05 ET | ARI -1 | 47.5 | DET 21 at ARI 25ARI -1 closed · ARI covered |
 JAX @  OAKSun, Sep 15 16:25 ET | OAK +3.5 | 40.5 | JAX 9 at OAK 19OAK +3.5 closed · OAK covered |
 MIA @  INDSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | IND +1 | 43.5 | MIA 24 at IND 20IND +1 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  CHISun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | CHI +6 | 41 | MIN 30 at CHI 31CHI +6 closed · MIN covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Sep 15 16:05 ET | TB -3 | 48.5 | NO 16 at TB 14TB -3 closed · TB covered |
 SD @  PHISun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | PHI +7.5 | 51 | SD 33 at PHI 30PHI +7.5 closed · SD covered |
 SF @  SEASun, Sep 15 20:30 ET | SEA +3 | 43.5 | SF 3 at SEA 29SEA +3 closed · SEA covered |
 STL @  ATLSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | ATL +4 | 47.5 | STL 24 at ATL 31ATL +4 closed · ATL covered |
 TEN @  HOUSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | HOU +7.5 | 42.5 | TEN 24 at HOU 30HOU +7.5 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  GBSun, Sep 15 13:00 ET | GB +9 | 48.5 | WAS 20 at GB 38GB +9 closed · GB covered |
 PIT @  CINMon, Sep 16 20:30 ET | CIN +7 | 40 | PIT 10 at CIN 20CIN +7 closed · CIN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
JAC @ 
LV WIN JAC +3.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, worse QB, bad QB, better coach 24-13 (65%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, better coach 18-10 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, better coach 34-19 (64%)
- and 27 more angles on this side
DAL @ KC LOSS KC -3 1.0u
- model likes them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, elite QB 15-10 (60%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, elite QB 21-14 (60%)
SF @ SEA LOSS SEA -3 1.0u
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, better coach, division game 87-51 (63%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, elite QB, division game 47-28 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, elite QB, division game 54-34 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
TEN @ HOU TOTALWIN Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 34-17 (67%)
- over when home team off Monday night 96-66 (59%)
SD @ PHI TOTALWIN Over 51.0 1.0u
- over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 23-9 (72%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 34-17 (67%)
- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 16-10 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
NO @ TB TOTALWIN Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 48-32 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 64-48 (57%)
WAS @ GB TOTALLOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 45-30 (60%)
DEN @ NYG TOTALWIN Over 52.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
CAR @ BUF TOTALWIN Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
NYJ @ NE TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
JAX @ OAK TOTALLOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)
DET @ ARI TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 76-59 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.