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Weekly Lines · 2013

Week 16.

16 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 10-6, +5.3u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 127-86, +47.5u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
ARI @ SEASun, Dec 22 16:05 ETSEA +842.5ARI 17 at SEA 10SEA +8 closed · ARI covered
CHI @ PHISun, Dec 22 20:30 ETPHI +2.553.5CHI 11 at PHI 54PHI +2.5 closed · PHI covered
CLE @ NYJSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETNYJ +2.541.5CLE 13 at NYJ 24NYJ +2.5 closed · NYJ covered
DAL @ WASSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETWAS -351DAL 24 at WAS 23WAS -3 closed · WAS covered
DEN @ HOUSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETHOU -953DEN 37 at HOU 13HOU -9 closed · DEN covered
IND @ KCSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETKC +7.546.5IND 23 at KC 7KC +7.5 closed · IND covered
MIA @ BUFSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETBUF +142MIA 0 at BUF 19BUF +1 closed · BUF covered
MIN @ CINSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETCIN +7.548MIN 14 at CIN 42CIN +7.5 closed · CIN covered
NE @ BALSun, Dec 22 16:25 ETBAL -145NE 41 at BAL 7BAL -1 closed · NE covered
NO @ CARSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETCAR +3.544.5NO 13 at CAR 17CAR +3.5 closed · CAR covered
NYG @ DETSun, Dec 22 16:05 ETDET +9.547NYG 23 at DET 20DET +9.5 closed · NYG covered
OAK @ SDSun, Dec 22 16:25 ETSD +1050OAK 13 at SD 26SD +10 closed · SD covered
PIT @ GBSun, Dec 22 16:25 ETGB -143.5PIT 38 at GB 31GB -1 closed · PIT covered
TB @ STLSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETSTL +3.543TB 13 at STL 23STL +3.5 closed · STL covered
TEN @ JAXSun, Dec 22 13:00 ETJAX -444TEN 20 at JAX 16JAX -4 closed · push
ATL @ SFMon, Dec 23 20:30 ETSF +15.546ATL 24 at SF 34SF +15.5 closed · ATL covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

ARI @ SEA
LOSS ARI +8 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), worse record, division game 21-11 (66%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), worse record, division game 37-20 (65%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, big underdog (7+), division game 22-12 (65%)
  • and 13 more angles on this side
ATL @ SF
WIN ATL +15.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 60-37 (62%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, won last week, elite QB 43-27 (61%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, underdog, on the road, elite QB 71-47 (60%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
MIA @ BUF
WIN BUF -1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, worse record, better QB 26-16 (62%)
NO @ CAR
LOSS CAR -3.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, division game 81-50 (62%)
CLE @ NYJ
WIN CLE +2.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 40-19 (68%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 67-40 (63%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 90-57 (61%)
  • and 7 more angles on this side
LV @ LAC
WIN LV +10 2.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, lost last week, high total (48+) 24-11 (69%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, division game, high total (48+) 22-11 (67%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), worse record, division game 37-20 (65%)
  • and 11 more angles on this side
TB @ LAR
WIN TB +3.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 18-8 (69%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, worse record, in a dome 21-12 (64%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, worse record, in a dome 21-12 (64%)
  • and 4 more angles on this side
DEN @ HOU TOTAL
LOSS Over 53.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big underdog 80-63 (56%)
NE @ BAL TOTAL
WIN Over 45.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 43-18 (70%)
  • over when late season, home team off Monday night 32-18 (64%)
  • over when on turf, home team off Monday night 43-27 (61%)
  • and 2 more angles on this side
NYG @ DET TOTAL
LOSS Over 47.0 1.0u
  • over when late season, home team off Monday night 32-18 (64%)
  • over when on turf, home team off Monday night 43-27 (61%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 96-66 (59%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
NO @ CAR TOTAL
WIN Under 44.5 1.0u
  • under when windy, division game 53-36 (60%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 64-48 (57%)
IND @ KC TOTAL
WIN Under 46.5 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 45-30 (60%)
CLE @ NYJ TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.5 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
PIT @ GB TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 108-79 (58%)
  • over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 39-29 (57%)
CHI @ PHI TOTAL
LOSS Under 53.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 48-32 (60%)
ATL @ SF TOTAL
WIN Over 46.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-52 (56%)
  • over when late season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 81-65 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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