Weekly Lines · 2013
Week 3.
16 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-7, +2.1u flat at -110. Season through week 3: 22-20, +2.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 KC @  PHIThu, Sep 19 20:25 ET | PHI +3 | 50 | KC 26 at PHI 16PHI +3 closed · KC covered |
 ARI @  NOSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | NO +8 | 48.5 | ARI 7 at NO 31NO +8 closed · NO covered |
 ATL @  MIASun, Sep 22 16:05 ET | MIA +3 | 45.5 | ATL 23 at MIA 27MIA +3 closed · MIA covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Sep 22 16:25 ET | NYJ +2.5 | 41 | BUF 20 at NYJ 27NYJ +2.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 CHI @  PITSun, Sep 22 20:30 ET | PIT -2.5 | 40.5 | CHI 40 at PIT 23PIT -2.5 closed · CHI covered |
 CLE @  MINSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | MIN +7 | 40 | CLE 31 at MIN 27MIN +7 closed · CLE covered |
 DET @  WASSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | WAS -1 | 48.5 | DET 27 at WAS 20WAS -1 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  CINSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | CIN -3 | 49.5 | GB 30 at CIN 34CIN -3 closed · CIN covered |
 HOU @  BALSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | BAL +1 | 44.5 | HOU 9 at BAL 30BAL +1 closed · BAL covered |
 IND @  SFSun, Sep 22 16:25 ET | SF +10.5 | 45.5 | IND 27 at SF 7SF +10.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  SEASun, Sep 22 16:25 ET | SEA +19.5 | 39 | JAX 17 at SEA 45SEA +19.5 closed · SEA covered |
 NYG @  CARSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | CAR -1 | 46.5 | NYG 0 at CAR 38CAR -1 closed · CAR covered |
 SD @  TENSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 43 | SD 17 at TEN 20TEN +3 closed · push |
 STL @  DALSun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | DAL +3.5 | 47.5 | STL 7 at DAL 31DAL +3.5 closed · DAL covered |
 TB @  NESun, Sep 22 13:00 ET | NE +7.5 | 44.5 | TB 3 at NE 23NE +7.5 closed · NE covered |
 OAK @  DENMon, Sep 23 20:30 ET | DEN +16 | 48.5 | OAK 21 at DEN 37DEN +16 closed · push |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
GB @ CIN WIN CIN +3 3.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, high total (48+) 15-5 (75%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, high total (48+) 20-9 (69%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, less rest than the opponent, high total (48+) 18-9 (67%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
LAR @ DAL WIN LAR +3.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 65-32 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 38-19 (67%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better coach, in a dome 26-15 (63%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
TB @ NE LOSS NE -7.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, more rest than the opponent, better coach 29-18 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, more rest than the opponent, better coach 27-17 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), elite QB, on turf 56-37 (60%)
KC @ PHI LOSS PHI -3 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, better coach, high total (48+) 30-13 (70%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, better coach, high total (48+) 26-13 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, high total (48+) 15-8 (65%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
JAC @ SEA LOSS SEA -19.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, elite QB, on turf 19-9 (68%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), blew someone out last week, better QB 32-16 (67%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, on turf 21-11 (66%)
- and 68 more angles on this side
IND @ SF WIN SF -10.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, elite QB 33-20 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, elite QB 23-14 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, elite QB 40-25 (62%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
CHI @ PIT TOTALWIN Over 40.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 43-18 (70%)
- over when early season, home team off Monday night 34-17 (67%)
- over when home team off Monday night 96-66 (59%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
OAK @ DEN TOTALLOSS Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when windy, home team a big favorite 29-19 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 45-30 (60%)
- under when windy, division game 53-36 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
TB @ NE TOTALWIN Under 44.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 45-30 (60%)
NYG @ CAR TOTALWIN Under 46.5 1.0u
- under when windy, line inside 3 43-32 (57%)
CLE @ MIN TOTALWIN Over 40.0 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 66-43 (61%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 140-107 (57%)
- over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
STL @ DAL TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
DET @ WAS TOTALWIN Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 48-32 (60%)
KC @ PHI TOTALWIN Under 50.0 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 48-32 (60%)
IND @ SF TOTALLOSS Over 45.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
- over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-52 (56%)
SD @ TEN TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 76-59 (56%)
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.