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Weekly Lines · 2013

Week 5.

14 games and 20 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 15-5, +12.3u flat at -110. Season through week 5: 47-32, +17.1u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
BUF @ CLEThu, Oct 3 20:25 ETCLE +3.540.5BUF 24 at CLE 37CLE +3.5 closed · CLE covered
BAL @ MIASun, Oct 6 13:00 ETMIA +2.542.5BAL 26 at MIA 23MIA +2.5 closed · BAL covered
CAR @ ARISun, Oct 6 16:05 ETARI -341CAR 6 at ARI 22ARI -3 closed · ARI covered
DEN @ DALSun, Oct 6 16:25 ETDAL -7.556.5DEN 51 at DAL 48DAL -7.5 closed · DAL covered
DET @ GBSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETGB +1053DET 9 at GB 22GB +10 closed · GB covered
HOU @ SFSun, Oct 6 20:30 ETSF +443HOU 3 at SF 34SF +4 closed · SF covered
JAX @ STLSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETSTL +1140.5JAX 20 at STL 34STL +11 closed · STL covered
KC @ TENSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETTEN -2.538KC 26 at TEN 17TEN -2.5 closed · KC covered
NE @ CINSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETCIN -245.5NE 6 at CIN 13CIN -2 closed · CIN covered
NO @ CHISun, Oct 6 13:00 ETCHI +150.5NO 26 at CHI 18CHI +1 closed · NO covered
PHI @ NYGSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETNYG -153.5PHI 36 at NYG 21NYG -1 closed · PHI covered
SD @ OAKSun, Oct 6 23:30 ETOAK -646SD 17 at OAK 27OAK -6 closed · OAK covered
SEA @ INDSun, Oct 6 13:00 ETIND -343.5SEA 28 at IND 34IND -3 closed · IND covered
NYJ @ ATLMon, Oct 7 20:30 ETATL +1045NYJ 30 at ATL 28ATL +10 closed · NYJ covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

DET @ GB
WIN GB -10 3.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 35-12 (74%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, elite QB, better coach, high total (48+) 31-12 (72%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, better coach, high total (48+) 30-13 (70%)
  • and 28 more angles on this side
KC @ TEN
LOSS KC -2.5 3.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 16-6 (73%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 49-23 (68%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, low total (41 or under) 24-12 (67%)
  • and 36 more angles on this side
LAC @ LV
WIN LAC -6 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, division game 66-42 (61%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, division game 59-38 (61%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, division game 118-77 (60%)
NE @ CIN
WIN NE -2 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, on turf 90-57 (61%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, on turf 80-51 (61%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, on turf 53-35 (60%)
NO @ CHI
WIN NO +1 3.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, elite QB 17-5 (77%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, high total (48+) 15-5 (75%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, less rest than the opponent, high total (48+) 20-9 (69%)
  • and 24 more angles on this side
PHI @ NYG
LOSS NYG +1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better QB, division game 22-12 (65%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, high total (48+) 16-9 (64%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, lost last week, got blown out last week, high total (48+) 16-9 (64%)
  • and 21 more angles on this side
SEA @ IND
WIN SEA -3 2.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 29-13 (69%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 65-32 (67%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB, in a dome 34-17 (67%)
  • and 31 more angles on this side
HOU @ SF
WIN SF -4 1.0u
  • model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, won last week 34-21 (62%)
DEN @ DAL TOTAL
WIN Over 56.5 1.0u
  • over when home team a big underdog, early season 21-10 (68%)
  • over when on turf, home team a big underdog 31-17 (65%)
  • over when home team a big underdog 80-63 (56%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
BAL @ MIA TOTAL
WIN Over 42.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 43-18 (70%)
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 34-17 (67%)
  • over when home team off Monday night 96-66 (59%)
DET @ GB TOTAL
WIN Under 53.0 1.0u
  • under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 45-30 (60%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, division game 64-48 (57%)
CAR @ ARI TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 66-43 (61%)
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 76-59 (56%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
JAX @ STL TOTAL
WIN Over 40.5 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 66-43 (61%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)
NYJ @ ATL TOTAL
WIN Over 45.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
NO @ CHI TOTAL
WIN Under 50.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 48-32 (60%)
PHI @ NYG TOTAL
LOSS Under 53.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), line inside 3 48-32 (60%)
KC @ TEN TOTAL
WIN Over 38.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 108-79 (58%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)
BUF @ CLE TOTAL
WIN Over 40.5 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)
SEA @ IND TOTAL
WIN Over 43.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 76-59 (56%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
HOU @ SF TOTAL
LOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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