Weekly Lines · 2013

Week 4.

15 games and 17 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 10-7, +2.1u flat at -110. Season through week 4: 32-27, +4.8u flat at -110.

Game	Market	Total	Final
SF @ STLThu, Sep 26 20:25 ET	STL -3	43	SF 35 at STL 11STL -3 closed · SF covered
ARI @ TBSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET	TB +2.5	40	ARI 13 at TB 10TB +2.5 closed · ARI covered
BAL @ BUFSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET	BUF -4	45	BAL 20 at BUF 23BUF -4 closed · BUF covered
CHI @ DETSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET	DET +3	48	CHI 32 at DET 40DET +3 closed · DET covered
CIN @ CLESun, Sep 29 13:00 ET	CLE -3.5	42.5	CIN 6 at CLE 17CLE -3.5 closed · CLE covered
DAL @ SDSun, Sep 29 16:25 ET	SD -1	47	DAL 21 at SD 30SD -1 closed · SD covered
IND @ JAXSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET	JAX -9.5	42.5	IND 37 at JAX 3JAX -9.5 closed · IND covered
NE @ ATLSun, Sep 29 20:30 ET	ATL +3	49	NE 30 at ATL 23ATL +3 closed · NE covered
NYG @ KCSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET	KC +3.5	43.5	NYG 7 at KC 31KC +3.5 closed · KC covered
NYJ @ TENSun, Sep 29 16:05 ET	TEN +3.5	40.5	NYJ 13 at TEN 38TEN +3.5 closed · TEN covered
PHI @ DENSun, Sep 29 16:25 ET	DEN +10.5	57.5	PHI 20 at DEN 52DEN +10.5 closed · DEN covered
PIT @ MINSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET	MIN -3	41.5	PIT 27 at MIN 34MIN -3 closed · MIN covered
SEA @ HOUSun, Sep 29 13:00 ET	HOU -1	41	SEA 23 at HOU 20HOU -1 closed · SEA covered
WAS @ OAKSun, Sep 29 16:25 ET	OAK -3.5	45.5	WAS 24 at OAK 14OAK -3.5 closed · WAS covered
MIA @ NOMon, Sep 30 20:30 ET	NO +7	48.5	MIA 17 at NO 38NO +7 closed · NO covered

The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

BAL @

BUF

WIN BAL -4 2.0u

model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 49-23 (68%)
model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 36-18 (67%)
model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, on turf 27-14 (66%)
and 37 more angles on this side

CIN @

CLE

WIN CIN -3.5 1.0u

model fades them by 3.0+, better coach, division game 89-57 (61%)
model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better coach, division game 59-38 (61%)
model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, division game 118-77 (60%)

DAL @

LAC

WIN DAL -1 2.0u

model fades them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 49-23 (68%)
model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, on the road, blew someone out last week 38-20 (66%)
model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better record 37-20 (65%)
and 12 more angles on this side

MIA @

LOSS MIA +7 1.0u

model likes them by 0.5+, in a dome, high total (48+) 45-28 (62%)
model likes them by 0.5+, won last week, in a dome, high total (48+) 24-15 (62%)
model likes them by 0.5+, in a dome, on turf, high total (48+) 41-26 (61%)

PIT @

MIN

WIN PIT -3 1.0u

model fades them by 0.5+, on the road, got blown out last week, elite QB 16-10 (62%)
model fades them by 1.0+, on the road, got blown out last week, elite QB 15-10 (60%)

SEA @

HOU

LOSS SEA -1 3.0u

model fades them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, in a dome 21-6 (78%)
model fades them by 3.0+, favorite, blew someone out last week, in a dome 18-6 (75%)
model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, in a dome 24-9 (73%)
and 118 more angles on this side

IND @

JAX TOTAL

LOSS Over 42.5 1.0u

over when home team a big underdog, early season 21-10 (68%)
over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
over when home team a big underdog 80-63 (56%)

PHI @

DEN TOTAL

WIN Over 57.5 1.0u

over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 23-9 (72%)
over when early season, home team off Monday night 34-17 (67%)
over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 16-10 (62%)
and 3 more angles on this side

WAS @

OAK TOTAL

LOSS Over 45.5 1.0u

over when home team off Monday night, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 23-9 (72%)
over when early season, home team off Monday night 34-17 (67%)
over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
and 2 more angles on this side

BAL @

BUF TOTAL

WIN Under 45.0 1.0u

under when windy, on turf 33-22 (60%)

SEA @

HOU TOTAL

WIN Over 41.0 1.0u

over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 66-43 (61%)
over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 76-59 (56%)
over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
and 1 more angle on this side

NE @

ATL TOTAL

LOSS Under 49.0 1.0u

under when high total (48+), line inside 3 48-32 (60%)

NYJ @

TEN TOTAL

WIN Over 40.5 1.0u

over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)

ARI @

TB TOTAL

LOSS Over 40.0 1.0u

over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 108-79 (58%)
over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 76-59 (56%)
and 2 more angles on this side

PIT @

MIN TOTAL

WIN Over 41.5 1.0u

over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 108-79 (58%)
over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 76-59 (56%)
and 1 more angle on this side

SF @

STL TOTAL

WIN Over 43.0 1.0u

over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 76-59 (56%)
over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)

CIN @

CLE TOTAL

LOSS Over 42.5 1.0u

over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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