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Weekly Lines · 2013

Week 6.

15 games and 16 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2013. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 11-5, +10.5u flat at -110. Season through week 6: 58-37, +27.6u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
NYG @ CHIThu, Oct 10 20:25 ETCHI +9.546.5NYG 21 at CHI 27CHI +9.5 closed · NYG covered
ARI @ SFSun, Oct 13 16:25 ETSF +1040.5ARI 20 at SF 32SF +10 closed · SF covered
CAR @ MINSun, Oct 13 13:00 ETMIN +2.544.5CAR 35 at MIN 10MIN +2.5 closed · CAR covered
CIN @ BUFSun, Oct 13 13:00 ETBUF -641CIN 27 at BUF 24BUF -6 closed · BUF covered
DET @ CLESun, Oct 13 13:00 ETCLE -144DET 31 at CLE 17CLE -1 closed · DET covered
GB @ BALSun, Oct 13 13:00 ETBAL -148.5GB 19 at BAL 17BAL -1 closed · GB covered
JAX @ DENSun, Oct 13 16:05 ETDEN +2753JAX 19 at DEN 35DEN +27 closed · JAX covered
NO @ NESun, Oct 13 16:25 ETNE +2.551.5NO 27 at NE 30NE +2.5 closed · NE covered
OAK @ KCSun, Oct 13 13:00 ETKC +7.541OAK 7 at KC 24KC +7.5 closed · KC covered
PHI @ TBSun, Oct 13 13:00 ETTB -2.544.5PHI 31 at TB 20TB -2.5 closed · PHI covered
PIT @ NYJSun, Oct 13 13:00 ETNYJ -140.5PIT 19 at NYJ 6NYJ -1 closed · PIT covered
STL @ HOUSun, Oct 13 13:00 ETHOU +9.543STL 38 at HOU 13HOU +9.5 closed · STL covered
TEN @ SEASun, Oct 13 16:05 ETSEA +1142TEN 13 at SEA 20SEA +11 closed · TEN covered
WAS @ DALSun, Oct 13 20:30 ETDAL +5.552WAS 16 at DAL 31DAL +5.5 closed · DAL covered
IND @ SDMon, Oct 14 20:30 ETSD -150.5IND 9 at SD 19SD -1 closed · SD covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

CIN @ BUF
WIN CIN -6 3.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 19-8 (70%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 36-17 (68%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, better coach, on turf 29-14 (67%)
  • and 39 more angles on this side
LAR @ HOU
WIN HOU -9.5 3.0u
  • model fades them by 1.0+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 19-5 (79%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better coach, in a dome 20-7 (74%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, at home, got blown out last week, better coach 33-17 (66%)
  • and 19 more angles on this side
IND @ LAC
WIN LAC +1 1.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, worse record, better QB, high total (48+) 17-10 (63%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, worse record, better QB, high total (48+) 18-12 (60%)
CAR @ MIN
WIN MIN -2.5 2.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 38-19 (67%)
  • model fades them by 1.0+, worse QB, better coach, in a dome 32-18 (64%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, won last week, better coach, in a dome 62-35 (64%)
  • and 16 more angles on this side
NYG @ CHI
LOSS NYG +9.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), lost last week, got blown out last week 14-8 (64%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, underdog, big underdog (7+), got blown out last week 14-8 (64%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), got blown out last week 14-8 (64%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
TEN @ SEA
WIN SEA -11 1.0u
  • model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, better coach, on turf 84-54 (61%)
  • model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 59-39 (60%)
PIT @ NYJ TOTAL
LOSS Over 40.5 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 43-18 (70%)
  • over when early season, home team off Monday night 34-17 (67%)
  • over when on turf, home team off Monday night 43-27 (61%)
  • and 4 more angles on this side
CIN @ BUF TOTAL
WIN Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
  • over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 140-107 (57%)
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
WAS @ DAL TOTAL
LOSS Over 52.0 1.0u
  • over when on turf, a team looking ahead to a division game 242-196 (55%)
TEN @ SEA TOTAL
LOSS Over 42.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
  • over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 75-59 (56%)
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 65-52 (56%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
ARI @ SF TOTAL
WIN Over 40.5 1.0u
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)
OAK @ KC TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when low total (41 or under), early season 161-129 (56%)
DET @ CLE TOTAL
WIN Over 44.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 108-79 (58%)
CAR @ MIN TOTAL
WIN Over 44.5 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 108-79 (58%)
PHI @ TB TOTAL
WIN Over 44.5 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 108-79 (58%)
JAX @ DEN TOTAL
WIN Over 53.0 1.0u
  • over when a new starting QB, early season 48-28 (63%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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